Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
307 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

...FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF MCS
OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND THEN WHERE IT IS SUNDAY...

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM AROUND BIE TO NEAR
HYS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS RUNNING
FROM 55 TO 60 OVER THE CWA. UPPER AIR ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM WESTERN SDAK. SCENARIO LOOKS
LIKE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGH PLAINS WITH ESE MOVEMENT INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW LEVEL JET...850 THETA E RIDGE...SURFACE FRONT
AND 850 FRONT WOULD POINT TO BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR
KS AND SW NEB PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  PROJECTED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGE FROM AN INCH IN NORTHERN CWA TO 1.6 INCHES SOUTH.  WILL
NEED TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN FOR THAT AREA BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FF
WATCH FOR NOW.

BOTH META AND GFS CONTINUE TO SPIN UP INTENSE VORT MAX WITH
APPROACHING WAVE WITH THE QUESTION BEING...DO WE HAVE A CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PROBLEM OR WILL WE GET A NEDDY EDDY?  COULD BE FOR REAL AS
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM WAVE. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY NOON. THUS WILL BUCK
SURROUNDING TREND AND KEEP OUR AREA DRY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO REST OF FORECAST WITH
RIDGING STILL EXPECTED FOR UPCOMING WEEK.

.GID...NONE.

EWALD

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-291200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
758 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 9 PM. THE AREA AT
MOST RISK IS SOUTH OF A LEXINGTON TO SUPERIOR NEBRASKA LINE...AND
INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALREADY IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM...FOR PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 136. THIS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED...AND AT TIMES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AND DUMP SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND NEBRASKA COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER ON SUNDAY...BEFORE
DWINDLING BY MONDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA NEAR THE STATE LINE.

MORITZ