Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

SVR WX PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE CONGEALING JUST OUR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE THE CWA WITH SVR WX. FRONT FORECAST TO LIGHT UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING EAST TONIGHT.
WITH AMPLE FUEL IN PLACE, SEE NO REASON WHY STORMS WONT MOVE EAST
AND EAT UP THE MOISTURE ALONG THE WAY. UPSHOT IS THAT WILL BLANKET
CWA GRIDS WITH SVR. ALSO OF CONCERN IS CHANCE FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN.
GIVEN PLENTY OF JUICE FOR STORMS, WILL PLAN TO MENTION HVY RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH,
HOWEVER, SINCE MID/UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MOVE STORMS ALONG
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT JUST TO OUR EAST. OF CONCERN IS
THE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDER ALONG AND ABOVE THE COLD FRONT.
CURRENT GRIDS PORTRAY THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL...THUS WILL NOT CHANGE.

AFTER WEDNESDAY...COOLER/DRIER AIR COVERS THE CWA. PCPN CHANCES
APPEAR NIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS SLOWLY INCREASING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS EXIST AS TO WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS GOING. PER NATIONAL DISC, EC ENSEMBLES NOT AS
AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS LATEST EC RUN
SUGGESTS. FURTHER...0Z GFS ENSEMBLES DO NOT INDICATE AS MUCH
TROFFINESS IN THE WEST AS THE OPERATIONAL EC SHOWS. UPSHOT IS THAT
WILL PLAN TO KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM FOR NOW.

.GID...NONE.

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KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
500 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT...THE GREATEST RISK EXISTS IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING THE TRI-CITIES OF GRAND ISLAND...KEARNEY...
AND HASTINGS.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.  TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREELEY...TO
GRAND ISLAND...TO HOLDREGE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS DESTABILIZED TO DANGEROUS LEVELS.  DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.  HOWEVER...COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL THEN INVADE
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND LOCAL SPOTTER GROUPS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

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