Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
200 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR CURRENT FCST BUT TO UP LOWS A BIT OVR NEXT
FEW DAYS AND LOWER HIGHS SOMEWHAT THU...OTHERWISE THINKING PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME.

RIGHT NOW...WATCHING MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY IN FORM OF FINE LINE
MOVE EWD OUT OF LBF TERRITORY. THIS WOULD BE LIKELY FIRST INITIATION
POINT FOR CONVECTION TODAY...OVR NRN CWA IN VALLEY SHERMAN GREELEY
OR HOWARD COUNTIES...POSSIBLY BUILDING SWD SOMEWHAT OVR TIME. LOTS
OF JUICE IN THE FORM OF SFC DPTS UPR 60S TO LOW 70S EAST OF
LINE...AND WITH SUN STARTING TO BREAK THROUGH GENERATING LOADS OF LL
CAPE. SHOULD REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALSO RATHER EASILY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND S OF I80 CORRIDOR. LL SHEAR QUITE GOOD...HOWEVER MID TO UPR
LVLS HAVE SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED. OVERALL...BEST CHC FOR TSRA WILL
BE OVR NRN HALF OF CWA ALONG DEV WARM FRONT...WITH BEST CHC FOR
SEVERE N OF I80 AND E OF HIGHWAY 281. STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR REST OF CWA...HOWEVER MUCH MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ENCROACHING UPON SWRN PORTION OF CWA. FOR NOW KEEPING
WITH SCATTERED MENTION...40 POPS NE...30S EVERYWHERE ELSE BUT SWRN
CWA WITH 20 POPS.

FOR MON...CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE HOT AND FAIRLY MOIST...HOWEVER
MUCH TOO CAPPED OVR MOST OF OUR CWA...WITH INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHING
FURTHER TO THE EAST. LEFT SMALL 20 POPS E AND NE CWA FOR AFT/EVE
PERIOD FOR POINTS IN NERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY WITH LEFT OVR
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY(S) HAVING THE CHANCE TO PUSH INTO THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...NOT MUCH OF CHANCE REALLY.

BEYOND...NO REAL CHANGES EXCEPT ABOVE MENTIONED LOWERING OF TEMPS A
BIT MORE THU BEHIND FRONT AS RELATIVELY COOL DRY AIR MOVES BACK FOR
A DAY OR SO.

.GID...NONE.

10

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-231200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
255 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A GOTHENBURG TO RED CLOUD TO MANKATO
KANSAS LINE. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE TRI CITIES AREA.

THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS MORNING
CLOUDS GAVE WAY TO INCREASED SUNSHINE. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...A COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST EAST OF AINSWORTH
TO NEAR GOTHENBURG AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH MCCOOK SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY
EASTWARD. OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT WERE PRODUCED FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ONE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED NORTH OF FULLERTON AND ORD...
WHILE ANOTHER WAS JUST WEST OF YORK AND EXTENDED SOUTH TO CONCORDIA
KANSAS. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
GENERATING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION
OF ALL THESE FACTORS POINT TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE...AS ARE
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING.

EWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
605 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0600 PM    GRAND IS                  NE   1 INCH HAIL
06/22/03   HALL                           ONE INCH HAIL OVER
                                          FONNER VIEW GOLFCOURSE.
                                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
606 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0602 PM    1 E GRAND IS              NE   1 INCH HAIL
06/22/03   HALL                           REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0615 PM    3 S GILTNER               NE   1 INCH HAIL
06/22/03   HAMILTON                       REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.