Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

CONVECTION OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE AND NEAR SURFACE
DEWPOINT/WINDSHIFT TROUGH. BETTER MOISTURE STILL POSITIONED
JUST EAST OF THIS TROUGH...AND ACROSS CENTRAL CWFA. HEALTHY
CAP FROM 18Z KLBF JUST ABOUT GONE TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT
FLAT CU OUTSIDE WINDOW CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE PREVENTATIVE EFFECTS FROM SYNOPTIC LOW PULLING OUT TO
OUR EAST.

CAN/T SEE MUCH REASON TO ARGUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING AND
QPF GUIDANCE. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER OUR CWFA BY LATE EVENING
LOOKS GOOD. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST INITIAL EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT OF STORMS. LLJ...ALBEIT NOT TOO STRONG...DOES ADD IN
STORM ENHANCEMENT BY LATE EVENING. ETA PRECIPITABLE WATER DEPICTS
1.6 INCHES OVER KS/NE BORDER BY DAWN THURSDAY. SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF COMPLEX IN GENERAL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER MONDAY NIGHT...THUS
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS (PER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK). AT ANY RATE...IT ALL SPELLS VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY SOUTHEAST ZONES BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

AFTER ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY...WEAK LITTLE CONTRA HIGH PRESSURE
PROGGED TO SET UP IN VICINITY OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WEAKER FLOW
OVER OUR CWFA WITH BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FURTHER SOUTH.
INSTABILITY EXISTS BUT IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT EVEN
THAT DOESNT LOOK TOO GREAT. MESHED WITH THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS WELL.

CHANGES TO DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 WERE VERY MINIMAL. THOUGH SOME WEAK
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MEANDER AROUND THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...OVERALL RIDGING SCENARIO SHOULD FAVOR
CURRENT WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST.

.GID...NONE.

MORITZ

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-121200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
605 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE PLAINS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...AND AREAS WEST OF A KEARNEY TO ALMA LINE.   SEVERE
HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

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