Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
219 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2003

WATER VAPOR SATL PIX AND NETWORK PROFILERS REVEALING A SHORT WAVE
TROF PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA HELPING TO KICK
OFF A COMPLEX DOWN THERE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROF WAS
SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN LAY IN THE NEAR TERM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS...AS DEPICTED FROM LATEST SPC SWODY1. NO REAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ADVERTISED OVERNIGHT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION...BUT UPSLOPE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO AID. LOW CLOUDS THOUGH STILL HANGING TOUGH IN
AREA OF CONCERN...BUT RECENT VIS SATL PIX SHOWING CLOUD BREAK UP
WITHIN DDC CWA AND EXPANDING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KICK IN TO
ENHANCE INSTABILITY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHEST POPS SOUTHWEST...
AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO MODIFY DEFINED BOUNDARY IN GRIDS. BUT WILL
PROBABLY BUMP UP POPS FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7...PATTERN NOT LOOKING TOO CONDUCIVE FOR PCPN.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH EXTENDED MODELS AS LATEST GFS HAS DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 6 AND 7.
OLDER RUNS ADVERTISE HEALTHY RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT THE RUNS
AS OF LATE ARE DAMPENING THE PATTERN TO SHOW MORE OF A ZONAL TYPE
FLOW. LOW CONFIDENCE OF GFS CONFIRMED BY POOR ENSEMBLE RELATIVE
MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY. SO DRY FOR NOW.

.GID...NONE.

DEE

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
714 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL SPILL INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING AS THEY SHIFT SOUTH INTO
AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER 10 PM...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...AS
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SET UP IN THAT REGION. THOSE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS TO
ABOUT 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS THROUGH MID
MORNING. THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY NOON. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
LOCAL OR INDIVIDUAL SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BRIEF
DEPLOYMENT...IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES THEIR COMMUNITY OR
AREA.

MORITZ