Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
300 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003

...TSTM CHANCES AND POSSIBILITIES FOR SEASONS FIRST SEVERE WX TODAY
AND TONIGHT...

00Z UPPER AIR DATA SUITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURING NEGATIVELY
TILT LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH EJECTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WEST TEXAS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX
AIDED OVERNIGHT BY 55KT LOW LEVEL JET PER HAVILAND AND HILLSBORO
PROFILERS.

LATEST /06Z/ SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING SEMI-BROAD 992MB LOW
PRESSURE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS...WITH ASSOCIATED DRY
LINE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES. MOIST
AXIS /CHARACTERIZED BY 50+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS AND 5C 850MB DEWPOINTS/
EXTENDING NORTH/NWWRD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.

IN SHORT...ALL SIGNS POINT TO A RAINY NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TSTMS APPEAR
LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA GIVEN BROAD SCALE
ASCENT/EJECTING SHORTWAVE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
CARVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. 00Z OPERATIONAL ETA/GFS AND
ETA KAIN-FRITSCH ALL SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
WOULD APPEAR SOME ASSOCIATED POSSIBILITIES FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
EXIST -- NAMELY IN NCNTRL KS AND SOUTHERN HALF OF NEB CWA -- GIVEN
ETAKF PROGGED 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPES IN PRESENCE OF LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS /7500-8000FT AGL/...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WOULD SUGGEST THIS WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR IN
EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT AND/OR BE OF A PULSE/EMBEDDED NATURE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

AS TIME GOES ON THIS EVENING...AT LEAST SOME INDICATIONS A MARGINAL
WIND THREAT COULD ALSO ADD INTO THE MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT
AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET MAXIMA APPROACHES. ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR /30-35KTS 0-6KM/ -- AIDED BY 35KT LOW LEVEL JET -- AND
OVERALL LINEAR/UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT INCREASES AS A RESULT...WHICH
MAY HELP PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND/OR
STORM MAINTENANCE IN GENERAL. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY AND/OR OCCASIONAL
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT.

CWA WILL BE LEFT ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED UPPER LOW AS IT
SLOWLY MIGRATES THROUGH OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ENDS ON TUESDAY WITH PERSISTENT BOUT OF
OFF/ON RAIN AND OVERALL MOISTENING OF TROPOSPHERIC LAYER. HIGH-END
RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR A
FEW PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO PICK UP ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...AS GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO
HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED WIND-DOWN OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND
COOLER TEMPS MID/LATE WEEK...WITH GRADUAL WARM-UP THEN ENSUING DURING
THE WEEKEND.

.GID...NONE.

GUYER

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
507 AM CST MON MAR 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PLAINS REGION. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE
SUCH THAT SOME OF THE STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...NAMELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE DIME TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

GUYER