Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
845 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2003

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ONGOING STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUAD OF THE CWA...WITH BLOWOFF
CLOUDS NOW COVERING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS.
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SUITE AND EVENING GGW SOUNDING NOT DEPICTING A
VERY FAVORABLE STORM ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE CURRENT STORMS AS THEY
MOVE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. THUS WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WHERE THEY ARE AND ARE EXPECTED TO GO IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN LOWER POPS TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS EVENING MODEL
RUNS NOT INDICATING VERY FAVORABLE LIFT. WILL DROP THE RED FLAG
WARNING AT 9 PM AS WIND HAS DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY...TEMPERATURES
HAVE LOWERED...AND STORM COVERAGE NOT GREAT. WITH LESS MIXING SHOULD
START TO SEE DEWPOINTS RISE WITH THE EASTERLY WIND...THUS ALLOWING
FOR AT LEAST FAIR RH RECOVERY. OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST. VALONE

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA.  THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE FLOW
BECOMES MUCH MORE ZONAL.  THE ZONAL FLOW IS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WELL SOUTH OF MONTANA. ALL THE MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN. TLSJR

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THRU MON...
LARGE AND STRONG 500 MB HIGH CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE...HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 600 DM OVER FOUR CORNERS. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF REPOSITION THE UPPER
HIGH FURTHER WEST AND RIDGE IT NORTH INTO BC. THIS FOLLOWS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PACIFIC THAT MOVES OVER TOP OF HIGH AND BRUSHES
OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT EVE. UKMET AND
CMC ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH LESS THREAT FROM SHORTWAVE...AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER HIGH. GFS ALSO SHOWING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
FOR SIGNIFICANT COOING BEHIND SHORTWAVE. ONGOING FORECAST OF
GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER SEEMS MOST REALISTIC
AND REASONABLE CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES. REMAINS FROM CLAUDETTE
TO GET CAUGHT UP WITH OTHER MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. IMPACT MINOR IN NE MT...CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF SAT NIGHT
LARGELY OROGRAPHIC GENERATED WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY MISS NE MT. SIMONSEN

GGW TUB 064/096 060/088 060/092 78333000
     BBBB 057/087 057/088 056/094 056/090 8200000000
KGDV TUT 065/094 061/089 061/091 78333223
     BBBB 057/086 056/086 056/095 056/091 8230000000

.GGW...NONE.

MTZ016>027-059>062-171200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
215 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2003

.DAY ONE...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
REFER TO GTFRFWGGW OR WWUS85 KGGW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LYNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
0918 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2003

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0735 PM    17 NE WINNETT             MT   0.75 IN HAIL
07/16/03   PETROLEUM

0840 PM    10 WNW SAND SPRINGS       MT   0.75 IN HAIL
07/16/03   GARFIELD

0840 PM    10 WNW SAND SPRINGS       MT   60 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/16/03   GARFIELD

BURLESON