Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2003

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR MIDNIGHT
TONITE AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES
TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN EARLIER FORECAST.
HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS MOST OF CWFA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH RAPID CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD RAPIDLY EASTWARD OVER REGION LATER
TOMORROW AND EAST OF AREA ON TUESDAY. VERY LITTLE DECOUPLING
EXPECTED DUE TO FRONTAL SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING BUT COOLER AIRMASS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWER MORNING TEMPS AS FORECAST. BETTER DECOUPLING
MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AREA. WARMER TUESDAY
UNDER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. LYNN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE NEWEST
GFS RUN IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH ECMWF AND THUS PROVIDED A MORE
REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. AS THE PACIFIC TROF
TRANSLATES EAST THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC AND USHERS IN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN TO
THE NORTH IN SASK. BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY THE AREA WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SLIGHT RIDGING AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS SLIDES
WELL EAST. THUS THE GOING DRY FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE WEEK STILL
LOOKS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE GFS...GIVEN THE TOO
FAR SOUTH PATTERN IN THE 00Z RUN... THIS IS WELL REFLECTED IN THE
GOING FORECAST. ADOLPHSON

KGGW BBT 057/080 054/087 058/091 77400003
     BUBB 054/088 055/088 057/092 057/092 8330000000
KGDV BBT 061/083 056/087 058/091 77400033
     BUBB 056/090 056/089 057/091 057/091 8330000000

.GGW...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
119/120/121/122.

MTZ016>027-059>062-141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
600 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN AFFECT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING TO FIRE
DISTRICTS 119...120...121 AND 122. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...GUSTY
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH...HIGH FIRE DANGER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
DRY LIGHTNING EXISTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE GTFRFWGGW OR WWUS85
KGGW FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TFJ