Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
840 PM MDT WED JUL 02 2003

.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE ENTERING PETROLEUM AND GARFIELD COUNTIES HAS BROUGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO GARFIELD COUNTY. THE AREA IS ALONG A 700
MB THETA-E RIDGE. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE NE. WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SCATTERED OVER GARFIELD AND MCCONE
COUNTIES IN UPDATE. WILL KEEP ISOLATED WORDING IN MOST AREAS AND
INCLUDE A FEW AREAS LIKE WIBAUX AND PHILLIPS COUNTY THAT HAVE DRY
FORECAST AT THE MOMENT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON GGW SOUNDING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STEEP LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
DOWNBURST WINDS IN THESE STORMS.  FORRESTER

FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH UPPER LOW CROSSING CENTRAL
CANADA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY AS RIDGE GIVES WAY TO
TROF ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
WITH TROF MOVING INTO ONTARIO. AIRMASS DRIES AND SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES WITH VEERING WINDS TO KEEP THREAT OF CONVECTION LOW.
STRONG LAPSE RATES TO MIX WINDS TO THE SURFACE BUT NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH ALOFT TO WARRENT LAKE WIND ADVISORY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT TODAY...BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ALBERTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ECMWF HOLDS UPPER LOW BACK LONGER WHICH
LEAVES MONTANA ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. GFS PUSHES FRONT THROUGH BY THIS TIME WITH MUCH LOWER
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES. CANADIAN ALSO INDICATES UPPER
LOW...BUT WEAKER AND A BIT FARTHER NORTH. DUE TO RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS...WILL NOT STRAY MUCH FROM INHERITED FORECAST AND SEE WHAT
MODELS SETTLE ON. WILL ALSO LEAVE INHERITED POPS THAT SIDE WITH
GFS SOLUTION SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AS IS. BY MONDAY...FLOW
BECOMES NORTHWEST PER GFS AND WEST PER ECMWF. GFS STILL TRYING TO
STRENGTHEN FOUR CORNERS HIGH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...NUDGING
RIDGE NORTH INTO MONTANA. WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. STROOZAS

KGGW BBE 055/081 052/081 055/083 90200001
     EEBB 055/077 053/079 054/083 057/088 9631000000
KGDV BBB 059/083 054/082 056/087 90220000
     EEBB 056/079 053/082 055/086 058/089 9633000000

.GGW...NONE.

MTZ016>027-059>062-031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
601 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
AREA BY MID-MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DNS