Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
915 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2003

.SHORT TERM...
TWIN CLOSED UPPER LOWS BOTH INFLUENCING NE MT TODAY. BOTH VERY
SIMILAR...WITH IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATIONS SEEN ON SATELLITE PICTURES.
FIRST ONE NOW MOVING INTO NW SE...STILL AFFECTING OUR EASTERN HALF
CWA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. 2ND LOW IN NE AB-NE SK BORDER. A SPIRAL
BAND-LIKE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING WELL AHEAD OF IT INTO OUR NW.
MODELS FORECAST THIS BAND TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS CWA TODAY. A
BAND OF MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH REMAINDER OF NE
MT. AIRMASS IS UNSTABLE AND AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN LOWER 60S AND LIFTED INDEXES TO REMAIN -1 OR -2...SO
WOULD EXPECT LOTS OF SHOWERS TO FORM BETWEEN THE 2 UPPER LOWS
ANYWAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS WEAK RIDGING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM TOO. THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT APPROACHING BAND AREA TO LOSE
DISTINCTION IN THIS AREA ANYWAY. SURFACE AIRMASS TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS QUITE UNIFORM IN NE MT AND WELL UPSTREAM. MANY AREAS HAVE
ALREADY MIXED OUT WINDS BY 9 AM TO 15-20 MPH. SEE LITTLE TO UPDATE
ONGOING FORECAST. MINOR UPDATE TO CLOUD GRID...NONE TO ZONE. SIMONSEN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CUT-OFF LOW TO PUSH WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NORTHEAST MT FROM THE NORTHWEST. WEAK
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS CWFA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH COOL
MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY WARMER AFTERNOONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO APPROACH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ON MONDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH SO
LEAVING POPS OUT OF FORECAST ATTM. GOOD MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH TO BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM TEMPS ALSO ADJUSTED
UPWARD SLIGHTLY. NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPEARS
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT AND SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
POPS TO REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL WATCH THIS FEATURE
ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE BRINGING POPS INTO THE
FORECAST AT THAT TIME. GOOD MIXING WITH THIS TROUGH FOR BREEZY DAY
TUESDAY. COOL FRONT NOW PROGGED ACROSS CWFA WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER
AND BREEZY WEATHER UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. JJL

KGGW WWW /067 044/055 043/061 7866653
     BEEE 042/071 045/074 052/075 049/071 046/ 77000000000
KGDV WWW /065 044/055 042/060 7866663
     BEEE 040/067 044/074 050/075 047/071 044/ 77300000000

.GGW...NONE.

MTZ016>027-059>062-061200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
600 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.