Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Glasgow, MT

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
215 PM MDT MON MAY 26 2003

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY ON IN
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
MAKING ITS WAY ON THROUGH THE CWA AS WELL. AM SIDING WITH ETA
SOLUTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SURFACE PATTERN. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...TAPERING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SINCE TROUGH LINGERS
THERE A BIT LONGER. BEST CHANCE OF ANY ORGANIZED STORMS STILL
APPEARS TO BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE MOST
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH TROUGH PASSAGE/FROPA.

FOR TUESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST CONTINUES TO DIG AND
AMPLIFY RIDGE OVER MONTANA WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S MOST AREAS TOMORROW AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REALLY DO NOT CHANGE MUCH COMPARED TO TODAY. DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY.

NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM COMES ON THURSDAY. STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO WORK THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS RATHER STRONG
FEATURE...BUT TIMING PROBLEMS STILL OBVIOUS. GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS
AHEAD OF ECMWF. THINK ECMWF HAS THE BETTER IDEA WITH SLOWER
PROGRESSION...AND WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF GFS COMES AROUND TO ECMWF
SOLUTION IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WITH STRONG FRONT...SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ON DOWN. WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. IF FRONT DOES INDEED
CONTINUE TO SLOW AND PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S...OR EVEN HIGHER. WILL
NOT GO ALL OUT QUITE YET AND KEEP THEM IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHEAST. FRONT LOOKS DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. WITH TIMING STILL IN
QUESTION...WILL LEAN TOWARD BROADBRUSH 30 POPS 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH
0Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH THIS STRONG FRONT AHEAD
AND EVEN MORE SO BEHIND IT. TINKERED WITH WINDS SOME...BUT LEFT
INHERITED GRIDS AS IS FOR THE MOST PART. STROOZAS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BUILDING A FLAT RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
CONUS FROM LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NCEP ENSEMBLE SHOWS
MODEST SCATTER...BUT ACCEPT CONSENSUS. EXPECT GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH LITTLE SIGN OF PRECIP. RIDGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
CWA...WHICH SHOULD DRY OUT ANY SYSTEMS COMING ONSHORE AND TRYING TO
CROSS RIDGE. STRONGEST SUCH MODELED SYSTEM TRACKS INTO CENTRAL MT
MONDAY WHEN RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED FURTHEST EAST DURING PERIOD...BUT
RELUCTANT TO ADD POPS DAY 7 ON SUCH MEAGER EVIDENCE. MOSTLY MINOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS...BUT BACKED OFF WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY DUE TO EXPECTATION OF  ACCELERATED PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND
ATTENDANT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY. DNS

KGGW BBT 054/080 051/087 056/086 96300003
     BBBE 047/073 046/076 049/078 052/080 8600000000
KGDV EBT 057/084 051/088 055/089 96430003
     BBBB 047/073 046/075 050/077 052/079 8600000000

.GGW...NONE.

MTZ016>027-059>062-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
555 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. SOME STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TFJ