Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

AVIATION DISCUSSION...
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING DRY LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME STRONGER SHOWERS
DEVELOP BETWEEN MINERAL WELLS AND JACKSBORO IN THE LAST SEVERAL
MINUTES ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GRAVITY WAVE.  THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME THUNDER IN THIS ACTIVITY. WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  LOOKS LIKE MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH LATE MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING DRY LINE.  TIMING OF DRY
LINE PASSAGE SHOULD BE AROUND MID DAY (17-19Z) WITH A FAIRLY THIN
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY BEHIND
THE DRY LINE/SQUALL LINE AS DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP.

351 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003
VERY BUSY SHIFT EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST
OF NORTH TEXAS ATTM...WHILE NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
CHILDRESS. NEW CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW AND DRY
LINE. THE DRY LINE IS CURRENTLY WAY OUT WEST...BUT MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A QUICK SURGE EAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
STILL...BELIEVE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AROUND 12Z FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FORECAST CAPE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF I35
AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF OUR CWA TODAY...SO FEEL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MAINLY WIND AND HAIL WITH A MORE SQUALL LINE TYPE ENVIRONMENT.

WINDS WILL BE RATHER BREEZY TODAY AS GRADIENT IS TIGHT. STRONG WINDS
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS WELL.
COULD BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT
DO EXPECT GRADIENT TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES.

DRY LINE TO WORK QUICKLY EAST AND PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY EARLY
TONIGHT...AND FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK FOR THAT MATTER AS COOLER
AND DRIER PERIOD MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A WARMING
TREND THE REST OF THE WEEK AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS INTO N TEXAS.

FCSTID =   80
DFW   80  49  71  40 /  50   0   0   0
ACT   81  51  73  44 /  30   0   0   0
PRX   77  48  70  39 /  70   0   0   0
DTO   79  46  70  40 /  40   0   0   0
TKI   79  48  71  40 /  50   0   0   0
DAL   80  50  71  41 /  50   0   0   0
TRL   80  51  72  41 /  50   0   0   0
CRS   80  52  74  43 /  50   0   0   0
TPL   82  52  75  44 /  30   0   0   0

.FWD...
TX...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TODAY ENTIRE FA.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-062100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
350 AM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY EAST
OF A PARIS...ROCKWALL...CORSICANA...CENTERVILLE LINE.  THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THIS LINE. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT OF TORNADOES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES
WILL INCREASE...MAINLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
MOST OF THE SPOTTER ACTIVATION NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 AM CST SUN APR 06 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0310 AM    PARIS                     TX   1 INCH HAIL
04/06/03   LAMAR                          DIME TO QUARTER-SIZED
                                          HAIL COVERING THE
                                          GROUND IN THE CITY.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.