Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

.AVIATION 600 AM CST...
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT DAY. WINDS SHOULD KEEP VSB
VFR...WITH ONLY SOME REDUCTION IN PRECIP. CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVING
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS SHIFTING SW/W TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING
BOUNDARY. 25

.PREV DISCUSSION 403 AM CST...
TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS THIS
MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED FROM EARLIER THOUGHTS THE PAST DAY
OR TWO...AND WE FEEL THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OUR BIGGEST PROBLEM
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IN THE CWA...WE HAVE NOT HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST WEEK...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF LEON AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A FEW HOURS AS THE GROUND SHOULD HANDLE IT AS WELL AS
VEGETATION SHOULD STILL ABLE TO HELP.  FOR NOW...WE WILL JUST
MENTION HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ZONES AND HAZARDOUS...AND NOT ISSUE A
WATCH.  THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR UPDATES AS NEEDED.

PRECIP SHOULD END WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW MOVES
RAPIDLY EASTWARD...GIVING US GOOD WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME VARIABILITY IN THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM THIS
WEEKEND...SO WE HAVE ONLY REMOVED PRECIP FROM FRIDAY AND LEFT THE
REMAINDER AS IS FOR NOW. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DFW   73  52  68  41 /  90  40   0   0
ACT   74  54  69  42 /  90  40   0   0
PRX   71  54  64  42 /  90  80   0   0
DTO   74  52  64  41 /  90  40   0   0
TKI   72  52  66  41 /  90  40   0   0
DAL   72  53  68  41 /  90  40   0   0
TRL   72  56  69  42 /  90  80   0   0
CRS   73  57  69  42 /  90  80   0   0
TPL   74  56  71  43 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

&&

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. NUISANCE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND OTHER
FLOOD-PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS COMING WEEKEND.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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