Severe Thunderstorm Warning 393, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
201 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2003

...930 PM DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING.  THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH VIRTUALLY NO PRECIP
EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED...APPARENTLY AS WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF 850 MB WAS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY
OVER A RAIN-COOLED AIR MASS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONE...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS.  WE WILL LEAVE SOME 20 PERCENT
POPS IN OVERNIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...AS SEVERAL EXPANSIVE AREAS
OF RAIN-COOLED AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

26

...201 PM DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEAST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND BETTER CAPE HAS BEEN
PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WITHOUT MUCH FORCING AND PRETTY
WEAK SHEARS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO AGAIN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW STORMS COULD AGAIN BE SEVERE WITH
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. WIND DAMAGE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (PWS
NEARLY 2 INCHES) WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER REPEAT FOR TOMORROW AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS NOT A LOT OF
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.

FURTHER OUT...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PATTERN CHANGE BUT THE
BIGGEST POSITIVE IS THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS. 12Z RUN
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FROPA ON SATURDAY NIGHT THAN
THE 00Z RUN...BUT THEY BOTH CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME PRETTY GOOD
QPF. CANADIAN RUN LOOKS A TINY BIT LESS FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA...BUT IT TO STILL BRINGS THE BOUNDARY WELL INTO
OUR CWA. FURTHERMORE...ENSEMBLE MSLP AND THICKNESS PROGS SHOW A COOL
DOWN INTO THE REGION AND SPAGHETTI PLOTS DO NOT SHOW A TON OF
DIVERGENCE. THUS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW ABOUT THE RAIN AND
COOLER WEATHER WITH THE NEXT FRONT. 00Z GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO PAINT
THE POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF THE TRANSITIONAL MONTHS OF FALL.

FCSTID =   80
DFW   76  97  76  96 /  40  20  20  20
ACT   72  95  73  98 /  30  30  20  20
PRX   73  95  74  94 /  40  30  20  30
DTO   72  97  72  96 /  30  20  20  20
TKI   72  97  74  96 /  40  20  20  20
DAL   76  97  76  96 /  40  20  20  20
TRL   75  97  74  96 /  40  30  20  30
CRS   74  95  74  96 /  40  30  20  30
TPL   72  95  71  97 /  30  30  20  20

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-271000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND STORMS WILL
BE QUICK TO DEVELOP AS WELL AS DISSIPATE.  THEREFORE...DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD AS THE
STORMS COLLAPSE.  THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS.  THEREFORE...SOME FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS IS LIKELY UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. HAIL TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.  THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

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