Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

.AVIATION...
BUSY MORNING AVIATION-WISE AS ANOTHER PRE-DAWN MCS MOVES THROUGH THE
DFW PTN OF TRACON ONCE AGAIN. FIRST COMPLEX PUSHING SE INTO JOHNSON/ELLIS
COUNTIES...BUT OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS AND FEED FROM WEAK LLJ HELPING
TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION BACK NWWD TOWARDS JACKSBORO/DECATUR. AS
SAID...WILL EXTEND MENTION OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...AND VRB GUSTS
TO 25 MPH FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION DFW AREA THROUGH 15Z...WITH MVFR
WACO AREA TIL 16Z OR SO...WITH  -SHRA POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z AS WELL.
SHOULD SEE BREAKS IN ACTIVITY IN 18-00Z TIME FRAME. MENTION OF
CBS/PROB30 GROUPS FOR HEAVY/SVR TSRA RESUME AGAIN IN THE 00Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...AS A STRONG LINEAR MCS MOVES THROUGH THE TRACON.

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.EARLY MORNING PUBLIC DISCUSSION 335 AM CDT...
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AND
THINGS WILL JUST GET EVEN MORE ACTIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE
40 KT LLJ THIS MORNING SO WILL NEED TO HAVE HIGH POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF FOR MAINLY THIS MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK PRETTY
GOOD AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE
BOUNDARIES-A-PLENTY AROUND AND MODELS SHOW WEAK FRONT TO WORK INTO N
TEXAS. H5 PVA WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND
WITH CAPE 2-4K J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE CIN...SEVERE
THREAT ON A MODERATE LEVEL LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY OUT WEST...WITH ENOUGH SHEAR AND VEERING TO ALLOW
SOME SUPERCELLS TO FORM. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS WITH SEVERE
THREAT EVOLVING INTO A FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE
THE GFS QPF MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH 5 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE
SOME AREAS THAT GET THAT MUCH GIVEN PWAT NEAR 2 INCHES ON ETA
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CORFIDI VECTORS AND MINOR THETA-E AXIS ALONG W-E
BOUNDARY SUGGEST MCS WILL INITIALLY PROPAGATE E BEFORE TURNING MORE
SE AND THEN POSSIBLY S INTO THE MAJOR THETA-E AXIS CLOSER TO 12Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECENTLY...AND THE PRETTY LOW
FFG...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FFA FOR MOST OF N TEXAS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT UPON CONVECTION...OR LACK
THEREOF...IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

H5 LOW LOOKS TO GET CUT-OFF UNDER WRN RIDGE AND THIS...COUPLED WITH
THE WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS...WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

FCSTID =   80
DFW   88  70  86  72 /  70  90  60  50
ACT   90  70  87  73 /  40  90  60  50
PRX   87  70  84  71 /  70  90  60  50
DTO   88  70  85  72 /  70 100  60  50
TKI   88  70  85  72 /  70  90  60  50
DAL   89  70  86  72 /  70  90  60  50
TRL   89  68  85  72 /  70  80  60  50
CRS   89  69  86  72 /  50  80  60  50
TPL   91  70  87  73 /  40  90  60  50

.FWD...
TX...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ZONES
TXZ091>095...TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>134...TXZ141>145...TXZ1
56>160...TXZ174.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-132300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
415 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST OF
   A CAMERON...HILLSBORO...CANTON LINE ...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX...GAINESVILLE LINE...MAINLY AFTER 6 PM.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED
SUPERCELLS...WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEAR A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...STORMS SHOULD FORM INTO AN INTENSE SQUALL
LINE OR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AFTER DARK...WITH THE ADDED THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY THIS
EVENING...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

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