Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
410 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2003

A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF TEXAS...NORTH OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE FOR THE LAST WEEK...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY CONCERNING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK TO
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND ALONG THE
300-310K SURFACES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THIS AREA OF PRECIP
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS
LATER TODAY...EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH AS WELL. THUS...FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA /GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20/ DURING THE MORNING
PERIOD. DESPITE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES
NOTED ON 08/00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME RAINFALL FROM THIS
COMPLEX. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER...AS A
RESULT OF MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR.

TONIGHT SHOULD FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...WITH
LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO ANOTHER COOL MORNING ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...A RAPID WARM-UP IS EXPECTED...WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AFTERNOON MAXES SHOULD BE
GREATEST IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...WHERE DRIER SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHER TEMPS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO
NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OVERALL...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SEABREEZE ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
NEVER COMPLETELY BUILDS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WILL GENERALLY USE
PERSISTENCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND KEEP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY DRY...AS MID-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY...BUT AM SKEPTICAL AT THIS
POINT.

DFW   83  62  92  73 /  60   0   0   0
ACT   86  62  95  74 /  40   0   0   0
PRX   81  60  89  70 /  60   0   0   0
DTO   82  62  91  71 /  60   0   0   0
TKI   82  61  91  72 /  60   0   0   0
DAL   84  63  92  73 /  60   0   0   0
TRL   84  63  92  73 /  40   0   0   0
CRS   86  64  95  73 /  40   0   0   0
TPL   86  64  95  74 /  40   0   0   0

.FWD...NONE.

65/DD

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-082200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
WILL GRADUALLY END BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

07/BB