Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
950 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

.PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
A LARGE TORNADIC SUPERCELL HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST JUST
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE STORM FORMED NEAR THE WARM FRONT...JUST
SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE.  EARLIER...A BIT OF A MESOLOW WAS WEST OF THE
AREA...NEAR THE WARM FRONT...DRY LINE INTERSECTION. THIS PROBABLY
ENHANCED LOCAL CONDITIONS...ALLOWING STORM FORMATION. A NEW TORNADO
WATCH IS ABOUT TO BE ISSUED...FOR AREAS JUST WEST OF THE DFW AREA.
WE WILL UPDATE THE ZONES WHEN THE WATCH COMES IN.

THE MAX PRESSURE FALLS AT 00Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR ABILENE NORTH INTO
THE PANHANDLE.  THIS MAY MORE OR LESS DEMARK THE SOUTHERN END OF
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SACLE LIFT...AND ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN CUT-OFF ZONE
FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
SUPERCELL ALSO HAS FORMED JUST INSIDE THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR DRY
SLOT...ALSO INDICATING A ZONE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...WITH SUBSIDENCE
FURTHER WEST WITHIN THE DRY SLOT.  THUS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AND SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF I-20
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES.

WE WILL LOWER POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AND
KEEP THEM CLOSE TO CURRENT VALUES NORTH OF I-20.

26

...AVIATION DISCUSSION...
CLDS MIXING TO LOW VFR AT THIS HOUR...WITH MAINLY SCT020-030 DECKS
UNDERNEATH. EXPECT CLDS TO REMAIN SCT-BKN VFR THRU 09Z
DFW/DAL/FTW...WITH ACT MVFR BY ARND 09Z. IF...OR MORE LIKELY
WHEN...CONVECTION REACHES THE AIRPORTS...SKIES WILL GO TEMPO
MVFR...WITH VFR RETURNING AFTER PASSAGE. WINDS SHLD INCR AFTER 03Z
OR SO AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARER AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET GETS HOWLING AT 40+ KTS. 30/SS

FCSTID =   26
DFW   72  88  64  81 /  60  60   0   0
ACT   75  90  64  82 /  20  40   0   0
PRX   71  85  62  78 /  60  60  30  30
DTO   71  88  63  81 /  60  60   0   0
TKI   71  87  63  80 /  60  60   0   0
DAL   72  88  64  81 /  60  60   0   0
TRL   72  87  64  80 /  60  60  20  20
CRS   74  88  65  80 /  20  60  30  30
TPL   75  91  65  82 /  20  40   0   0

.FWD...
TX...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES TXC093...
TXC133...TXC429...TXC503.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-160900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1013 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ALONG AND
WEST OF A SHERMAN...DALLAS...STEPHENVILLE...GORMAN LINE. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.

IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A GAINESVILLE...WEATHERFORD...COMANCHE
LINE THROUGH 100 AM.  A TORNADIC STORM WAS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN EASTLAND COUNTY AT 10 PM.

FURTHER EAST...THE EASTLAND STORM MAY FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORM WITH A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...IT WOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A
GAINESVILLE...DALLAS...CANTON LINE.  ELSEWHERE..THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A JACKSBORO...LAMPASAS LINE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE THREAT AREAS OF ANY
INTENSE STORM THROUGH FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1024 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1010 PM    12 N CISCO                TX   TORNADO
05/15/03   EASTLAND                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER NEAR
                                          HIGHWAY 6