Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
225 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

18Z SOUNDING STILL HAS AIRMASS QUITE CAPPED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED.  CAP WEAKENS
TO THE NORTH WITH A TORNADIC SUPERCELL CURRENTLY ABOUT 60-70 MILES
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  LINE OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND INTENSIFY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
...EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE ELEVATED.  CAP WILL BE HARD TO BREAK BUT MAY
OCCUR BETWEEN 21-23Z AT MAX HEATING.  WINDS HAVE REMAINED BACKED TO
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DFW AREA BUT HAVE VEERED TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE RED RIVER.  IF LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE CAP IS BROKEN...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A DECATUR...DENTON...MCKINNEY...
GREENVILLE...SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.  DRY LINE FROM EAST OF WICHITA
FALLS TO GRAHAM...TO EAST OF SAN ANGELO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH MOVES RAPIDLY EASTWARD.
DRY LINE WILL MOVE TO NEAR INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES 06-09Z.  TOMORROW WILL BRING COOLER...DRIER
...AND SMOKELESS AIR INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST
MOST OF THE DAY.  GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKS LIKE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST FLOW EVENT SETTING UP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK..WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
THE SMOKE AND HAZE ALSO RETURNING TO THE REGION.

FCSTID =   59
DFW   63  81  57  81 /  40   0   0   0
ACT   64  84  58  84 /  40   0   0   0
PRX   62  80  53  79 /  40   0   0   0
DTO   59  80  55  81 /  40   0   0   0
TKI   61  80  54  80 /  40   0   0   0
DAL   62  81  55  81 /  40   0   0   0
TRL   63  82  55  81 /  40   0   0   0
CRS   65  84  56  82 /  40   0   0   0
TPL   65  85  59  85 /  40   0   0   0

.FWD...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES
TXZ091>095...TXZ100>107...TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ1
56>162...TXZ174>175.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN...TERRELL...TYLER LINE.  THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.

AT NOON A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY TO WICHITA FALLS
TO ABILENE.  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED IN OKLAHOMA AHEAD
OF THE DRY LINE.  THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.  A MESO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST WEST
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA AROUND 300-400 PM.  IF THIS OCCURS
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL
CREATE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE ON THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR DATA.  HOWEVER...IF AFTERNOON
HEATING BREAKS THE CAP...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE...AND IF GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT...THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IS ALONG THE RED RIVER COUNTIES IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.  HOWEVER...IF THE CAP IS BROKEN...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
NEXT SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 MAY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED BY 200 PM...
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE BY 300 PM.