Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 091409
FFSFTW
TXC099-091545-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
910 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CORYELL COUNTY UNTIL 1045 AM
CDT...

VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL FROM GATESVILLE TO MOODY.  
OBSERVERS ARE REPORTING THAT NEARLY 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
SINCE MIDNIGHT IN GATESVILLE.  ONE SPOTTER REPORTS LEON RIVER NEAR 
BANKFULL IN GATESVILLE.  SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY 
THE SHERIFFS OFFICE INCLUDING HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN FLAT AND THE 
GROVE...COUNTY ROADS 185 AND 188 IN THE IRELAND COMMUNITY...AND 
HIGHWAY 116 AT HARD BARGAIN MOUNTAIN.  AT LEAST ONE HOME IS FLOODED 
IN THE OGLESBY AREA.  RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL AT A RATE OF TWO TO 
THREE INCHES AN HOUR OVER MUCH OF CORYELL COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL 
FLOODING IS LIKELY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY IF YOU ARE IN A 
FLOOD PRONE AREA.


LAT...LON 3144 9751 3133 9745 3130 9750 3129 9791
          3148 9792

$$

ROBBINS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
725 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2003

.UPDATE...
WE WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.  PCPN ENDING
NORTHERN HALF...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OR REDEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING.  WILL RETAIN HEAVY RAIN WORDING SOUTHERN HALF.  /ROBBINS

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AHEAD OF
APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.  EXPECT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
CLEAR CWA BY SUNSET WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
WHERE H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING.  THIS IS IMPLIED IN VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING INCREASING LLJ
OVER THE AREA.  MESO-ETA AND RUC PAINT GREATER THAN 1 INCH QPF VALID
FOR THE 6-H PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
THUS...WE WILL CONTINUE HEAVY RAIN WORDING ALL ZONES EXCEPT NW WHERE
PCPN IS SCATTERING OUT RATHER QUICKLY.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE AN URBAN/SMALL STREAM ADVISORY ISSUED HERE OR THERE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW ZONES WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN A
BIT HEAVIER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT
APPEARS TO BE VERY SMALL GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
AND RELATIVELY LOW STORM TOTALS THUS FAR.

SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL DAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY BREAK
AFTER DARK. IF THIS HAPPENS...FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM BY MORNING
FRIDAY. FOR NOW...I WILL HOLD OFF ON FOG IN THE FORECAST UNTIL IT
BECOMES MORE APPARENT THAT SKIES WILL INFACT CLEAR TONIGHT.  FEEL
THAT ALL GUIDANCE HAS A POOR HANDLE ON DEW POINTS AS THEY HAVE
INITIALIZED DFW SFC DEWPOINT SOME 3 TO 5 DEGREES TOO LOW.
ALSO...THEIR TENDENCY TO DROP DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT SEEMS UNREASONABLE IN LIGHT OF ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE AND
VIRTUALLY NO DRY-AIR ADVECTION.  WE EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING OUR SFC DEWPOINTS
(AND CONSEQUENTLY OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS) A CATEGORY OR SO HIGHER THAN
INDICATED BY MOS.

DFW   77  70  83  66 /  40  10   0   0
ACT   79  70  85  66 /  90  20   0   0
PRX   75  69  81  66 /  40  20   0   0
DTO   76  69  82  66 /  30  10   0   0
TKI   76  69  82  66 /  30  10   0   0
DAL   77  70  83  66 /  40  10   0   0
TRL   77  70  83  66 /  40  20   0   0
CRS   79  70  84  66 /  80  20   0   0
TPL   79  70  85  66 /  90  20   0   0

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-092300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER ALL BUT THE
NORTHWEST...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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