Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
340 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SEVERE THREAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS THIS MORNING. ON THE LARGE SCALE...BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND SLIDING TOWARD CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.  AREA
PROFILERS SHOWING WEAK WAVE AT 700MB MOVING FROM ERN WY INTO WRN NE
AND SWRN SD.  PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM WEAK LOW
CENTER IN CNTRL SD...SWD INTO SWRN NE AND FAR EASTERN CO.  THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA TOWARD THIS EVENING.  WESTERN CWA ALSO MOST LIKELY TO SEE
DECENT HEATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS EASTERN AREAS WILL STILL
BE SEEING SOME DEBRIS LINGERING FROM EARLY MORNING MCS.  THIS WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS AND INCREASED INSTABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.  SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER FROM ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL SET UP TO FOCUS
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC ON TIMING OR
LOCATION OF BEST SEVERE THREAT.  WILL LEAVE THAT FOR DAY SHIFT TO
REFINE WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE TO HWO.  BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT
CURRENT ACTIVITY TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAYBE
HANGING ON IN THE FAR EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA TOWARD I-29 CORRIDOR IN THE EVENING...
AND INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA LATE EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CURRENT
ACTIVITY CLEARS OUT AND ALLOWS ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER.  HOWEVER IF
SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE OCCURS...PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO
WIND/HEAVY RAIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT.  SPC HAS PLACED
NEARLY ENTIRE CWA IN MODERATE RISK FOR DAY 1...AND WILL MENTION
CHANCE OF SEVERE IN ZONE FORECAST AND GRIDS FOLLOWING ABOVE THINKING.

LARGE SCALE FRONT FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND SIMILAR TO TODAY...LATE DAY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO MESOSCALE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY.  CWA
AGAIN IN CENTER OF MODERATE RISK FOR DAY 2 WITH SURFACE FRONT OVER
THE AREA.  WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS OF SHORT TERM
FORECAST...AS THE CWA REMAINS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKING GOOD THROUGH MID WEEK.

.FSD...NONE

 HACKER

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-221200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1101 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.	ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH 5 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING...ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING
THE HURON...MITCHELL AND CHAMBERLAIN AREAS.  LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
OVERNIGHT.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  AFTER THIS
ACTIVITY DECREASES... AND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE
DAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF REDEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT...AS IT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THERE
APPEARS TO BE A MODERATE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AS NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES
RESULTING FROM THE WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

 HARMON

SDZ038>040-050-052>055-057>061-063>065-068-220730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
204 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 558 HAS EXPIRED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA HAS EXPIRED. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
THIS AREA...THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED.

BOUSTEAD