Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1040 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2003

SFC FRONT AS OF 15Z LOCATED FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.  AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT...JUST NORTHWEST OF KABR...MAKING SLOW
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST.  FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE A STRONG SOUTHEAST
PUSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ASSISTANCE...
BUT MAY EDGE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER TO ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ADDED A LOW CHANCE POP IN KHON AREA TO COVER THIS...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST TO COVER POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

TEMPS RISING QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN DEPICTED IN HOURLY GRIDS SO FAR
THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN SOME AS MAX MIXING IS
REACHED.  NOT A LOT OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO CIRRUS SHIELD...SO
BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT MOST AREAS.

.FSD...NONE

 HACKER

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-171200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
127 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AND
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH...ALONG WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
THESE AREAS...OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

WHILE THE ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET... ANY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.	THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BROOKINGS AND MARSHALL
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE
ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY ONLY A
SMALL PART OF FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.