Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
345 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

BAND OF MID LEVEL SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA.  NOT A LOT OF RAIN REACHING THE SFC...BUT A FEW HUNDRETHS
HERE AND THERE...AND WILL KEEP CHC/SCT POPS IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA.  WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING...
AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHC OF LINGERING ACCAS TSRA IN THE FAR SOUTH
EARLY...WE SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ON TUESDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES QUICKLY EAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  SOUTHEAST
NOT THE BEST FOR MAXIMUM MIXING...SO ONLY RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OVER TUESDAY HIGHS AT THIS POINT.  BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE WEST WHERE ANY WIND DIRECTION WEST OF SOUTH WILL PROMOTE GREATER
MIXING AND WARMER TEMPS.  HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL POP IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WE START TO SEE SOME
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING AT CHANCE OF
TSRA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.  KEEPING POPS ON THE LOW CHANCE
SIDE FOR NOW AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH OF OUR
AREA...BUT STILL WORTH A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

SIDED CLOSER TO ETA ON TIMING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS.  HAVE SEEN
FRONT HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THIS SUMMER WHEN
STRONGER ENERGY IS SLIDING WELL TO THE NORTH.  REGARDLESS THE FRONT
AND ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING OVER THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND.  DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO GOING LONG RANGE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.  00Z GFS TRYING TO PRODUCE DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT AM HAVING A
HARD TIME SEEING IT WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY OVER THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.
ALSO KEPT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE...WITH COOLEST DAY
EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOST AREAS RIGHT AROUND 70.

.FSD...NONE

 HACKER

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1045 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF A YANKTON TO BROOKINGS LINE.
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL LOOK TO BE THE
GREATEST THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 6 PM CDT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

JRM