Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
340 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2003

...SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER TRICKY FCST INVOLVING NMRS TROFS AND S/WS MOVG THRU THE
FAST UPPER FLOW ACRS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. FOR TNGT...OLD OUTFLOW
BNDRY AND HUNG UP CDFNT DRAPED ACRS NW IA. CONVECTION MAY CONT TO
FIRE UP ALONG THIS BNDRY IN THIS AREA THRU THE EVENING HRS UNTIL WE
START TO LOSE SOME OF THE HEATING. IN ADDN...IT APPEARS THAT A VORT
LOBE MAY DVLP EARLY THIS EVENING OVER N CNTRL NEB WHICH COULD HELP
TO REFIRE ANY CONVECTION ACRS THE SRN CWA...BUT BEST CHCS WL BE IN
NW IA AS THEY ARE IN THE RR JET QUAD. IN ADDN...ANOTHER S/W WL
MOVE THRU THE FLOW...CRNTLY SPARKING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION IN NW
SD. THIS SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE WRN CWA LATER THIS EVENING...MOVG
THRU THE BROOKINGS AND SW MN AREA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. NOT A GREAT
CHC OF RAIN...BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT. THOUGHTS ARE RIGHT NOW THAT
THE SVR THREAT IS MINIMAL OVER THE AREA WITH SHEAR THAT IS RATHER
WEAK...AND EITHER WEAK LIFT OR SUBSIDENCE AFFECTING THE FSD FA. SO
WILL NOT MENTION SVR WORDING IN THE ZONES.

SATURDAY DAYTIME REMAINS INTERESTING. ETA CONTS TO POINT TOWARD A
LARGE AMNT OF RESIDUAL LOW TO MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS OVER PARTS OF
THE SRN CWA...ALONG WITH STRONG MID LVL -DIV Q. THE ETA WAS
DISPLAYING QPF FIRST IN THE SW CWA SAT MRNG...MOVG EWD ALONG I 90
AND SWRD AS THE PROGRESSED. AS USUAL GETTING CLOSE TO THE EVENT...
THE ETA HAS NUKED THE PCPN DESPITE THE ABOVE MENTIONED PROBLEMS...
BUT NOT THE GFS HAS PICKED UP ON THE QPF WITH A CONVECTIVE LOOKING
INDUCED VORT MAX SATURDAY AFTN. THEREFORE...CONT TO GO CHC POPS OVER
THE SRN CWA FOR SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTN. ETA/GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON BRINGING ANOTHER S/W THRU THE ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS ONE COULD BE STRONG AND WORTH STRONG CHC POPS.

THIS SATURDAY NIGHT WAVE EXITS RAPIDLY...AND BEHIND IT MID LVL WAA
USHERS IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA IS CAPPED
OFF AGAIN WITH +12 TO +14C AIR AT H7. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW
ANOTHER VERY VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED...AND IS
CRNTLY ON THE WV IMAGERY IN WRN CANADA. COULD BE SOME MORE SVR TS
WITH THIS ONE SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT. PCPN WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE LOW LVL BNDRY WHERE THE CAP BREAKS DOWN. LOW LVL BNDRY
THEN CONTINUES TO LAY OVER FM W TO E ACRS THE SRN CWA ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WL KEEP A CHC OF TS/SHRA GOING FM I 90 SWRD IN
THIS TIMEFRAME.

...LONG TERM...
OVERALL...MODELS CONT TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES. THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF S/WS MOVES THRU ON TUE AND TUE
NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY SOME SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING BUILDING JUST TO
THE WEST OF THIS AREA...POTENTIALLY CAPPING THINGS OFF LATE IN THE
WEEK. NEW GFS RUNS POINTED TO SOME QPF IN THE SIOUX CITY AREA ON
THURSDAY. HARD TO HANG MY HAT ON THIS RIGHT NOW SO WILL REEVALUATE
TOMORROW.

.FSD...NONE

MJF

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1110 AM CDT FRI JUL 04 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS THEY SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.  SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 5 PM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA... AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 OVER
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA
AFTER 7 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
244 PM CDT FRI JUL 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1025 PM    PARKSTON                  SD   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/03/03   HUTCHINSON                     REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

1030 PM    4 ESE FREEMAN             SD   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/03/03   HUTCHINSON                     REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER. 50 TO 60 MPH
                                          WIND. LARGE TREE BROKEN
                                          OFF.

1040 PM    2 NNW ETHAN               SD   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/03/03   DAVISON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER. NUMEROUS TREE
                                          BRANCHES DOWN.