Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

September 25, 2003Gila County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 25, 2003, 1:38 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 22 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 25, 2003, 1:38 PM MST (20:38 UTC)
Expired: Sep 25, 2003, 2:00 PM MST
In force: 22 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Gila County, AZ

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2393 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -84 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KFGZ 252038
SVRFGZ
AZC007-252100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
135 PM MST THU SEP 25 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 200 PM MST

* AT 130 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER STRAWBERRY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF PAYSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY THROUGH 150 PM MST

HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND MOVE TO A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF.

LAT...LON 3440 11139 3449 11150 3438 11165 3428 11151

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 25, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 25, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 8 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST THU SEP 25 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF. ELSEWHERE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MARTY WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE.

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. MARTY CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE TO PORTIONS OF AZ THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WAS STILL EVIDENT IN THE NRN GULF OF CALIF AND A
BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL AZ. THE KFGZ
SOUNDING WAS DRY AGAIN...WHILE KTUS STILL HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY
SINCE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THINNING AND THERE SHOULD BE MORE HEATING
TODAY. NORTH OF THE RIM...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY. NO
UPDATE TO ZFP NECESSARY.  DB

.NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1 2003...THE TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TABLE (BELOW) WILL NO LONGER BE
APPENDED TO THIS PRODUCT. THE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING
DAYTIME WEATHER...WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE RECENTLY ADOPTED TABULAR
STATE FORECAST (SFT). THE SFT PROVIDES THESE FORECASTS THROUGH 7
DAYS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT IS FPUS65 KPSR. THE PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER IS PHXSFTAZ. USING THE INTERNET...YOU CAN ACCESS THE SFT
DIRECTLY AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/GPRODUCT.PL?FLGPHXSFTAZ
(ALL LINK LETTERS PRIOR TO THE ? MUST BE IN LOWER CASE.)

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   FRI     SAT        TDY TON   FRI   SAT
FLAGSTAFF        075/040 077/043 079/042       020 000 000 000 000 000
WINSLOW          085/052 088/052 089/051       000 000 000 000 000 000
PRESCOTT         079/053 087/053 089/052       020 010 000 000 000 000
PAGE             089/062 091/062 091/061       000 000 000 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK      080/036 081/038 081/037       000 000 000 000 000 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 086/043 087/045 087/044       000 000 000 000 000 000
COTTONWOOD       090/061 098/061 100/060       020 010 000 000 000 000
GRAND CANYON     076/041 078/044 080/043       000 000 000 000 000 000
GREER            072/039 074/042 076/041       030 010 000 000 000 000
HEBER            080/043 082/046 084/045       020 010 000 000 000 000
JACOB LAKE       072/040 074/043 076/042       000 000 000 000 000 000
NAVAJO N.M.      078/042 079/044 079/043       000 000 000 000 000 000
PAYSON           083/053 091/053 093/052       020 010 000 000 000 000
SEDONA           087/060 095/060 097/059       020 010 000 000 000 000
SELIGMAN         081/051 089/051 091/050       000 000 000 000 000 000
SHOW LOW         081/049 083/052 085/051       030 010 000 000 000 000
ST. JOHNS        085/055 087/050 086/047       020 000 000 000 000 000
WUPATKI N.M.     087/054 090/054 091/053       000 000 000 000 000 000

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.