Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

September 6, 2003Coconino County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 6, 2003, 5:06 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 6, 2003, 5:06 PM MST (00:06 UTC)
Expired: Sep 6, 2003, 5:30 PM MST
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Coconino County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 18 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 281 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1525 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KFGZ 070006
SVRFGZ
AZC005-070030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
504 PM MST SAT SEP 6 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BELLEMONT...FLAGSTAFF

* UNTIL 530 PM MST

* AT 459 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER FORT VALLEY...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF BELLEMONT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLAGSTAFF AT 515 PM MST
  4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COSNINO AT 525 PM MST
  6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINONA AT 530 PM MST

HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND 
MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF.

LAT...LON 3536 11173 3520 11184 3497 11142 3517 11128

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 6, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 6, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 36 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT SEP 06 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PULL
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS.

.DISCUSSION...FOR SUNDAY DRIER AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE
CURRENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE THE
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED. MONDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY AND THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT WILL BE JUST TO
OUR SOUTH COULD SURGE BACK EARLIER THAN THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. WE
WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON MONDAY.

MOISTURE RETURNS FOR MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR
A POTENTIALLY VERY WET TWO DAYS.

IN THE EXTENDED...A WARM MID LEVEL CAP WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND STORM FREE
CONDITIONS. BEYOND THURSDAY...MOISTURE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK.
HAVE PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY PERIOD AS COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND TROUGH IN SEPTEMBER
USUALLY MEANS SHOWERS.

.NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1 2003...THE TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TABLE (BELOW) WILL NO LONGER BE
APPENDED TO THIS PRODUCT. THE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING
DAYTIME WEATHER...WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE RECENTLY ADOPTED TABULAR
STATE FORECAST (SFT). THE SFT PROVIDES THESE FORECASTS THROUGH 7
DAYS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT IS FPUS65 KPSR. THE PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER IS PHXSFTAZ. USING THE INTERNET...YOU CAN ACCESS THE SFT
DIRECTLY AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/GPRODUCT.PL?FLGPHXSFTAZ

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SUN   MON     TUE        TON SUN   MON     TUE
FLAGSTAFF        048/077 047/076 050/071      020 020 010 020 030 040
WINSLOW          061/089 059/088 062/083      010 000 000 000 020 040
PRESCOTT         058/085 058/084 061/079      020 000 000 000 020 040
PAGE             069/091 069/089 072/084      010 000 000 000 010 030
WINDOW ROCK      052/080 050/079 053/074      030 010 000 020 030 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 064/086 062/085 065/080      020 000 000 010 020 030
COTTONWOOD       066/097 066/096 069/091      020 000 000 010 020 030
GRAND CANYON     052/079 051/077 052/072      020 000 000 000 020 030
GREER            047/074 046/073 049/068      030 020 010 020 040 050
HEBER            053/081 052/081 053/076      030 020 010 020 030 040
JACOB LAKE       048/074 047/073 050/068      020 000 000 000 020 030
NAVAJO N.M.      058/078 056/077 059/072      020 000 000 010 020 030
PAYSON           058/091 058/089 061/084      010 000 000 010 020 040
SEDONA           065/094 065/092 068/087      020 010 000 020 020 040
SELIGMAN         056/087 056/086 059/081      010 000 000 000 020 030
SHOW LOW         056/083 055/082 058/077      030 010 000 020 030 040
ST. JOHNS        060/088 058/087 058/082      020 010 000 010 030 040
WUPATKI N.M.     063/091 061/090 064/085      020 010 000 000 020 040

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 6, 10:00 AM MST, 7 hours 6 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-070200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SAT SEP 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN YAVAPAI
AND GILA COUNTIES WHERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 6, 8:02 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	28 min
Sep 7, 2:44 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Gila	31 min
Sep 7, 3:32 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Gila	58 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.