Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
250 PM MST MON AUG 25 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. THE STORMS SOUTH OF THE RIM MAY BE ENHANCED THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIV...ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH
SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND...DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERTS.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS IGNACIO
INFLUENCES THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IGNACIO DOES HAVE THE CAPACITY TO
ADD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND INCREASE THE DIVERGENCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS. AS IGNACIO NEARS...THE PROBABILITY FOR LARGE COMPLEXES NEAR
THE SOUTHERN BORDER WILL ALSO INCREASE. ALL IN ALL...IGNACIO WILL
IMPROVE THE MOISTURE FLUX NORTHWARD AND IMPROVE THE DYNAMIC SITUATION
FOR WIDESPREAD AND LONG-LIVED CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...THE SOUTHWEST ALSO
MAY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A S/WV IN THE GREAT BASIN. AIRMASS
MAY BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC...THUS WRINGING OUT AS MUCH RAIN AS
POSSIBLE DESPITE MID LEVEL DRYING. WILL LEAVE SCATTERED POPS RIGHT
ON THROUGH DAY SEVEN TO COVER THIS. PETERSON.

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON TUE   WED     THU        TON TUE   WED     THU
FLAGSTAFF        052/075 052/072 053/074      040 050 040 050 040 040
WINSLOW          063/087 064/085 065/087      030 030 030 030 040 030
PRESCOTT         064/082 065/080 065/082      030 040 030 040 040 040
PAGE             068/090 069/087 070/089      020 020 030 030 030 020
WINDOW ROCK      056/080 055/078 056/080      040 050 040 050 040 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 064/086 063/084 064/086      030 030 040 040 040 030
COTTONWOOD       072/093 073/091 073/093      030 040 030 040 040 040
GRAND CANYON     052/076 052/073 053/075      030 040 040 050 040 040
GREER            049/070 049/067 050/069      040 050 040 050 040 040
HEBER            054/080 054/077 055/079      040 050 040 050 040 040
JACOB LAKE       052/073 052/070 053/072      030 040 030 040 040 030
NAVAJO N.M.      061/080 060/078 061/080      040 040 050 050 050 040
PAYSON           065/086 066/084 066/086      040 030 040 050 040 040
SEDONA           070/090 071/088 071/090      030 040 030 040 040 040
SELIGMAN         057/085 058/083 058/085      030 040 030 040 040 040
SHOW LOW         060/080 060/077 061/079      040 040 040 040 040 040
ST. JOHNS        058/082 059/080 060/082      040 040 040 040 040 040
WUPATKI N.M.     064/089 065/087 066/089      030 030 030 030 040 030

AZZ004>018-037>040-260200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON AUG 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ARIZONA BY LATE THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OFF THE RIM AND INTO PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND GILA
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY.

DUE TO THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE...ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN PORTIONS OF
YAVAPAI COUNTY. SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE
MAINLY SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS BY MID WEEK...BUT
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.