Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 18, 2003, 4:24 PM MST for Coconino County, Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 21 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 18, 2003, 4:24 PM MST (23:24 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 18, 2003, 4:45 PM MST
- In force
- 21 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 21 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -312 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1853 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 29 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 133 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
739 WUUS55 KFGZ 182324 SVRFGZ AZC005-017-182345- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 421 PM MST FRI JUL 18 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA EXTREME WEST CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA * UNTIL 445 PM MST * AT 417 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF FOREST LAKES...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE OVER... STATE HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 299 AND 314 AT 440 PM MST WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3461 11113 3448 11097 3472 11064 3488 11083
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 18, 2:26 PM MST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 2:26 PM MST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU JUL 17 2003
.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WEST
WITH THE CENTER LOCATED IN COLORADO. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A
WELL-DEVELOPED EASTERLY FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS EASTERLY FLOW ARE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM CLAUDETTE. THE 700 MB CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED IN SW AZ
THIS AFTERNOON AND IS MAINTAINING A SLOW WESTERLY TRACK. IN ITS
WAKE...AN ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AND IS
TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO ARIZONA. GPSMET SHOWS THAT IPWV HAS INCREASED TO MORE THAN 1.5
INCHES IN SERN AZ AND ABOUT 1 INCH IN NRN AZ...WITH MUCH LOWER
VALUES NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE UP 5-10 DEGREES
FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...WIND FIELDS HAVE INCREASED IN MID LEVELS RESULTING IN
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SO THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A GOOD
CLIP AND UNDERGO SOME MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION. FOR SAT/SUN...EXPECT A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE. FOR THE EXTENDED...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DB
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SAT SUN MON TON SAT SUN MON
FLAGSTAFF 054/084 052/085 053/084 030 030 030 030 030 030
WINSLOW 067/097 066/098 065/095 030 020 020 020 020 020
PRESCOTT 065/092 063/093 063/090 030 020 020 030 020 030
PAGE 076/102 075/101 073/101 020 020 010 020 010 020
WINDOW ROCK 055/090 056/090 056/088 020 030 030 030 030 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 065/096 066/096 066/094 020 030 020 030 020 030
COTTONWOOD 073/103 071/104 071/101 030 020 010 020 010 020
GRAND CANYON 055/088 052/089 051/087 030 030 020 030 020 030
GREER 050/080 048/081 049/080 040 040 030 040 030 040
HEBER 055/089 053/090 054/089 040 030 020 040 020 040
JACOB LAKE 054/082 052/083 053/082 030 040 030 030 030 030
NAVAJO N.M. 059/090 060/090 060/088 020 030 020 030 020 030
PAYSON 066/097 064/098 064/095 040 030 010 020 010 020
SEDONA 071/101 069/102 069/099 030 030 020 030 020 030
SELIGMAN 064/095 062/096 062/093 030 030 020 020 020 020
SHOW LOW 062/090 060/091 061/090 030 030 020 030 020 030
ST. JOHNS 062/098 063/096 063/095 030 030 020 030 020 030
WUPATKI N.M. 070/099 069/100 068/097 030 020 020 030 020 030Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 10:00 AM MST, 6 hours 24 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-190200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST FRI JUL 18 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.