Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 15, 2003, 3:59 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 15, 2003, 3:59 PM MST (22:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 15, 2003, 4:30 PM MST
- In force
- 31 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Coconino County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 48 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 15 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -189 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1238 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -38 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KFGZ 152259 SVRFGZ AZC005-152330- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 358 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 430 PM MST * AT 355 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LAKE MARY ROAD AND MORMON LAKE LODGE BY 410 PM MST HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3480 11148 3488 11132 3505 11142 3498 11157
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 15, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST FRI AUG 15 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT KEEPING MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA UNDER A NORTHEAST FLOW.
OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA SOME DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED IN FROM COLORADO
AND NEW MEXICO AND SEEMS TO BEE PUTTING A LIMIT ON STORM ACTIVITY
FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM DEEPER MOISTURE STILL REMAINS AND STORMS THAT FORM ON
THE RIM STILL MAY MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS DEEPER MOISTURE. AS A
RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI...GILA AND COCONINO COUNTIES. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW PARKS RIGHT OVER ARIZONA WITH A
DEEP...MOIST...COOL AIR MASS. EXPECT ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL TREND IN
PRECIPITATION.
IN THE EXTENDED...NOT CLEAR WHAT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE FOR MONDAY
AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEAK. FAIRLY CERTAIN ARIZONA WILL AVOID
A SIGNIFICANT DRY PUNCH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS IS SHOWING
VERY LITTLE DRYING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THINK THIS IS
REASONABLE. WILL GO WITH A STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
.FGZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES
004>009-012-015-016-018-037-038
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SAT SUN MON TON SAT SUN MON
FLAGSTAFF 048/072 048/075 048/077 060 050 030 040 040 040
WINSLOW 058/085 059/087 058/089 050 040 020 030 020 030
PRESCOTT 058/080 058/086 059/087 060 050 020 040 020 040
PAGE 069/088 065/087 065/090 050 040 020 040 020 040
WINDOW ROCK 049/077 047/077 049/081 050 050 030 040 040 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 057/083 055/083 057/087 040 040 020 040 030 040
COTTONWOOD 066/091 066/097 067/098 050 050 020 040 020 040
GRAND CANYON 048/073 048/076 048/078 060 050 020 040 030 040
GREER 045/067 045/070 045/072 060 060 040 050 050 050
HEBER 050/077 050/080 050/082 060 050 030 040 040 040
JACOB LAKE 048/070 048/073 048/075 060 050 030 040 040 040
NAVAJO N.M. 054/077 052/077 054/081 050 040 030 040 040 040
PAYSON 059/084 059/090 060/091 050 040 030 040 020 040
SEDONA 064/088 064/094 065/095 060 050 020 040 020 040
SELIGMAN 057/083 057/089 058/090 050 040 020 040 030 040
SHOW LOW 056/077 056/080 056/082 060 050 030 040 040 040
ST. JOHNS 053/080 054/082 053/084 050 040 020 040 030 040
WUPATKI N.M. 059/087 060/089 059/091 050 040 020 030 020 030Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 15, 9:53 AM MST, 6 hours 6 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-160200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 700 AM MST FRI AUG 15 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY FOR YAVAPAI...NORTHWEST GILA AND WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY... DEEP MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY. LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AREAS UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 5:00 PM MST | Tornado Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 30 min |
| Aug 14, 5:26 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila, Navajo | 49 min |
| Aug 14, 5:35 PM MST | Tornado Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila, Navajo | 25 min |
| Aug 14, 6:01 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila | 44 min |
| Aug 14, 6:08 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 22 min |
| Aug 14, 6:22 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 23 min |
| Aug 14, 6:41 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 34 min |
| Aug 14, 7:42 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 33 min |
| Aug 14, 8:06 PM MST | Tornado Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 24 min |
| Aug 14, 9:03 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 42 min |
| Aug 15, 4:04 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 26 min |
| Aug 15, 4:13 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 32 min |
| Aug 15, 4:35 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 25 min |
| Aug 15, 4:44 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 61 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.