Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
905 AM MST FRI AUG 8 2003

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
EACH DAY.

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN THE WX PATTERN WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING CENTERED OVER N.M. PW OVER THE CWA
REMAINS NEAR 0.80 INCHES WITH A NOTABLE RISE OVER SOUTHERN AZ LAST
NIGHT. DPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...UP ABOUT
5 DEGREES FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SEE NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECT THE STORMS
TO MOVE OFF THE RIM AND INTO THE LCR DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY DOWN POURS WITH A
THREAT OF SMALL STREAM FLOODING. NO UPDATE. DF

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   SAT     SUN        TDY TON   SAT   SUN
FLAGSTAFF        080/054 080/053 080/053      040 020 040 020 040 020
WINSLOW          092/064 091/065 092/065      030 020 030 020 040 020
PRESCOTT         092/065 092/064 090/064      010 010 010 010 020 010
PAGE             094/073 093/072 093/072      010 010 010 010 030 010
WINDOW ROCK      085/055 087/054 085/054      050 030 050 030 030 020
CANYON DE CHELLY 091/063 093/062 091/062      040 030 040 030 030 020
COTTONWOOD       103/073 103/072 101/072      020 010 010 010 020 010
GRAND CANYON     081/054 081/053 081/053      020 010 020 010 030 010
GREER            075/051 075/050 075/050      060 040 060 040 050 020
HEBER            085/056 085/055 085/055      050 030 050 030 040 020
JACOB LAKE       078/054 078/053 078/053      020 010 020 010 030 010
NAVAJO N.M.      085/060 087/059 085/059      030 020 030 020 030 020
PAYSON           096/066 096/065 094/065      020 020 020 020 030 020
SEDONA           100/071 100/070 098/070      020 020 020 020 030 020
SELIGMAN         095/064 095/063 093/063      010 010 010 010 020 010
SHOW LOW         085/062 085/061 085/061      050 030 050 030 040 020
ST. JOHNS        090/064 092/062 090/060      050 030 050 030 040 020
WUPATKI N.M.     094/065 093/066 094/066      030 020 030 020 040 020

AZZ004>018-037>040-090200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST FRI AUG 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL OVER THE STATE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH THESE STORMS INTO THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MORE NUMEROUS AND STRONGER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. SOME STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY IS AGAIN
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.