Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 26, 2003Gila County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 26, 2003, 6:19 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 26, 2003, 6:19 PM MST (01:19 UTC)
Expired
Jul 26, 2003, 6:50 PM MST
In force
31 min
Issued by
NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Jul 26, 3:05 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2003-07-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 660 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2003-07-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
660 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-136 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2742 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KFGZ 270119
SVRFGZ
AZC007-270150-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
615 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS EXTENDED THE

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 650 PM MST

* AT 610 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR YOUNG...OR ABOUT 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  FOREST LAKES...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AT 630 PM MST

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MST
SATURDAY EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA.

LAT...LON 3395 11101 3409 11087 3432 11117 3414 11134

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 26, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 26, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 49 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT JUL 26 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES OF COLORADO SHIFTS
WESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY TOMORROW. CWA REMAINS UNDER A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. PW VALUES HOVERING NEAR AN INCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA ATTM. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER INFLUX OF MOISTURE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH PWS INCREASING BY A QUARTER OF AN
INCH. APPROACHING JET STREAK TO MOVE ACROSS SE AZ TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE ALREADY FIRING OFF CONVECTION OVER WHITE MTNS AND RIM AREAS.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA COULD LINGER THRU THE NIGHT AS DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STREAK CROSSES THE CWA. TOMORROW AND MONDAY
LOOK MORE UNSTABLE AS INVERTED TROF MOVES WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ.
MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN THETA-E AND LIS FOR SUNDAY. FOCUS
AREAS TOMORROW INCLUDE THE RIM AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
STORMS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL
WILL BE OF CONCERN.

EXTENDED...SEE NOTHING IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT WARRANTS ANY
CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT DAILY MONSOON FCST. UPPER HIGH STAYS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WITH MOIST FLOW INTO THE REGION CONTINUING. DF

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SUN   MON     TUE        TON SUN   MON     TUE
FLAGSTAFF        056/080 057/079 054/076      030 060 030 060 040 050
WINSLOW          067/094 068/090 065/087      020 040 030 040 030 030
PRESCOTT         065/087 066/085 064/082      030 050 040 060 030 040
PAGE             070/096 072/093 069/090      020 020 030 040 030 040
WINDOW ROCK      060/090 058/086 055/083      030 040 040 060 040 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 070/096 068/092 065/089      020 030 030 050 030 030
COTTONWOOD       073/098 074/096 072/093      020 040 030 050 020 030
GRAND CANYON     055/082 056/081 053/078      020 050 020 050 030 040
GREER            052/076 053/075 050/072      050 060 050 060 040 060
HEBER            057/085 058/084 055/081      040 060 040 060 040 060
JACOB LAKE       056/078 057/077 054/074      020 040 020 050 030 040
NAVAJO N.M.      064/090 062/086 059/083      020 030 030 050 030 030
PAYSON           066/092 067/090 065/087      030 020 040 060 030 040
SEDONA           071/096 072/094 070/091      020 040 030 050 020 030
SELIGMAN         058/090 059/088 057/085      020 040 030 040 020 030
SHOW LOW         064/086 065/085 062/082      030 050 030 060 040 050
ST. JOHNS        062/088 063/084 060/081      030 050 040 050 040 040
WUPATKI N.M.     070/096 071/092 068/089      020 050 030 050 030 030
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 26, 9:45 AM MST, 8 hours 34 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-270200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THIS STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND NOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARM AND VERY MOISTURE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR A CONTINUED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM AND YAVAPAI COUNTY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 26, 5:40 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZGila35 min
Jul 26, 6:07 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGZNavajo53 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.