Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING FAIRLY
QUICKLY. CLOUDS IN THIS AREA WILL TAKE AWAY FROM ANY ADDITIONAL
HEATING ALONG WITH RAIN COOLED AIR AT THE SURFACE...THINKING THAT
THIS AREA HAS SUFFICIENTLY STABILIZED. NEW AREA OF STORMS FORMING
OFF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE EASTERN RIM WILL POSSIBLY FORM
THE NEXT COMPLEX OF STORMS. THIS AREA WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
BETTER INSTABILITY...AND RELATIVELY DRY SOILS. WE WILL MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM AND INTO
THE LOWER PORTION OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...FROM WINSLOW
DOWN STREAM TO THE COLORADO RIVER. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHES
EAST AND WEST ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY FROM YAVA TO SKULL VALLEY TO
CORDES JUNCTION TO JUST NORTH OF WASHINGTON PARK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS EVENING. WE WILL ALSO
BE MENTIONING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE YAVAPAI COUNTY ZONES.
SATURDAY STORM ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN A LITTLE AS THE ATMOS IS A
LITTLE MORE STABLE. AN APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...STILL ON TRACK WITH HIGHER CHCS OF PRECIP AND COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TC

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SAT   SUN     MON        TON SAT   SUN     MON
FLAGSTAFF        058/081 057/079 054/078      030 050 030 060 040 070
WINSLOW          067/094 067/092 065/091      030 030 030 040 030 050
PRESCOTT         067/089 067/088 066/087      030 050 040 060 040 060
PAGE             078/096 078/093 075/092      030 030 030 050 030 050
WINDOW ROCK      058/088 058/086 055/085      030 040 040 060 030 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 065/094 066/092 065/091      020 030 030 050 030 040
COTTONWOOD       076/100 077/099 074/098      030 040 030 050 040 050
GRAND CANYON     055/083 056/081 053/080      030 040 030 060 030 060
GREER            048/077 049/075 050/074      030 050 040 060 040 070
HEBER            057/086 058/084 055/083      030 050 030 060 040 070
JACOB LAKE       056/079 057/077 054/076      030 040 030 060 030 060
NAVAJO N.M.      061/088 062/086 059/085      030 040 030 060 030 060
PAYSON           065/094 065/093 067/092      030 040 030 050 040 050
SEDONA           070/098 071/097 072/096      030 040 030 050 040 060
SELIGMAN         067/092 068/091 065/090      030 040 030 060 030 060
SHOW LOW         059/087 059/085 062/084      030 050 040 060 030 060
ST. JOHNS        063/088 063/086 060/085      030 030 030 050 030 060
WUPATKI N.M.     071/096 071/094 068/093      030 040 030 050 030 050

AZZ004>018-037>040-260200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1020 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF
FLAGSTAFF. THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND MORE
INSTABILITY WILL HELP THUNDERSTORM BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THERE WILL
BE A THREAT OF A FEW STORMS ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. FOR THE REST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THERE WILL BE ONLY A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 1100 AM MST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.