Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2003, 5:12 PM MST for Apache County, Arizona. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 20, 2003, 5:12 PM MST (00:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 20, 2003, 5:50 PM MST
- In force
- 38 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Apache County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 219 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -83 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2507 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 10 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -6 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 19 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KFGZ 210012 SVRFGZ AZC001-210055- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 510 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA * UNTIL 550 PM MST * AT 504 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF VERNON...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGERVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3419 10987 3401 10968 3418 10945 3436 10962
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 2:35 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 2:35 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
235 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2003
.SYNOPSIS...THE DAILY PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A MOIST PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TRAPPED OVER HIGH TERRAIN
WITH MAINLY DRY OUTFLOWS PROPAGATING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
STILL THINK SOME RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. HAVE CUT
BACK ON THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THESE AREAS...BUT STILL WELL INTO
THE SCATTERED CATEGORY. CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH CLEARING TO GET A SUNNY START MONDAY. MODELS STILL
ADVERTISING A DECENT WAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE ZONES
HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER POPS. FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES AND
GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW STAY IN PLACE AFTER MONDAY AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MODERATE
GRADE MONSOON FORECAST THROUGH DAY SEVEN. PETERSON.
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON MON TUE WED TON MON TUE WED
FLAGSTAFF 058/083 057/082 055/082 030 050 040 040 030 040
WINSLOW 068/094 066/091 065/091 020 020 030 020 020 020
PRESCOTT 065/092 068/090 066/090 040 030 040 030 030 030
PAGE 078/096 075/094 075/092 020 020 030 020 020 020
WINDOW ROCK 060/086 058/084 056/085 030 050 040 040 030 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 070/092 068/090 066/091 020 030 030 020 020 020
COTTONWOOD 073/103 076/101 074/101 030 030 040 030 030 030
GRAND CANYON 057/085 056/084 054/084 030 040 030 030 030 030
GREER 054/079 053/078 051/078 030 050 040 040 030 040
HEBER 059/088 058/087 056/087 030 050 040 040 030 040
JACOB LAKE 058/081 057/080 055/080 030 040 030 030 030 030
NAVAJO N.M. 064/086 062/084 060/085 030 040 040 030 030 030
PAYSON 066/097 069/095 067/095 040 030 050 040 030 040
SEDONA 071/101 074/099 072/099 030 030 040 030 030 030
SELIGMAN 058/095 061/093 059/093 040 030 040 030 030 030
SHOW LOW 066/089 065/088 063/088 030 050 040 040 030 040
ST. JOHNS 063/088 061/085 060/085 030 040 040 030 030 030
WUPATKI N.M. 071/096 069/093 068/093 020 020 030 020 020 020Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 9:25 AM MST, 7 hours 47 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-210200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 925 AM MST SUN JUL 20 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE FIRST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...LIKELY BEFORE 10 AM MST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE OTHER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES WHERE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS NORTHERN GILA COUNTY AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.