Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 11, 2003, 3:38 PM MST for Coconino County, Gila County, Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 11, 2003, 3:38 PM MST (22:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 11, 2003, 4:15 PM MST
- In force
- 37 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 115 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -766 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2443 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -52 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS55 KFGZ 112238 SVRFGZ AZC005-007-017-112315- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVIATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 336 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FOREST LAKES SOUTHWESTERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA * UNTIL 415 PM MST * AT 332 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FOREST LAKES...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... RURAL SOUTHWESTERN NAVAJO COUNTY AT 350 PM MST THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO AN INCH AND WIND GUSTS UP NEAR 60 MPH. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3437 11065 3432 11087 3400 11081 3403 11054
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 11, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 11, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 8 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2003
.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT...RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS EACH
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING
MONDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...A HOT AND MAINLY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE MOISTURE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS HAS RESULTED
IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT ST.
JOHNS SOUTHWARD. ELSEWHERE...IT HAS BEEN GENERALLY DRY WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE ARE EXTENDING FROM SELIGMAN
TO SHOW LOW. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER ARIZONA
AND ACTUALLY WOBBLE SOUTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND WILL TEND
TO PUSH ANY MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. ALL THAT WILL REMAIN IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH IT STILL REMAINS
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA...WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD.
IN THE EXTENDED...THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
A FEW UNPREDICTABLE WOBBLES OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. WILL
CONTINUE THE GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER AND MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTH.
MCCOLLUM
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SAT SUN MON TON SAT SUN MON
FLAGSTAFF 048/092 048/092 051/090 000 000 000 010 010 020
WINSLOW 058/103 058/103 061/101 000 000 000 000 000 000
PRESCOTT 063/102 063/101 063/098 000 000 000 000 000 000
PAGE 075/106 075/104 074/102 000 000 000 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK 042/096 044/096 046/094 000 000 000 000 000 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 052/102 054/102 056/100 000 000 000 000 000 000
COTTONWOOD 072/113 071/112 071/109 000 000 000 000 000 000
GRAND CANYON 047/094 047/094 050/092 000 000 000 000 000 000
GREER 044/088 044/088 047/086 020 020 020 020 020 020
HEBER 049/097 049/097 052/095 000 000 000 020 020 020
JACOB LAKE 048/090 048/090 051/088 000 000 000 000 000 000
NAVAJO N.M. 046/096 048/096 050/094 000 000 000 000 000 000
PAYSON 064/107 064/106 064/103 000 000 000 000 000 000
SEDONA 069/111 069/110 069/107 000 000 000 000 000 000
SELIGMAN 062/105 062/104 062/101 000 000 000 000 000 000
SHOW LOW 056/098 056/098 059/096 000 010 010 010 010 010
ST. JOHNS 059/101 060/102 059/099 010 000 000 000 000 000
WUPATKI N.M. 061/105 061/105 064/103 000 000 000 000 000 000Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 11, 9:20 AM MST, 6 hours 18 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-120200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 700 AM MST FRI JUL 11 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 11, 3:30 PM MST, 8 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-121100- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 330 PM MST FRI JUL 11 2003 ...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT WAVE CONTINUES... A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD LEVELS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SUNDAY. IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO AVOID DEHYDRATION. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT-COLORED...LOOSE-FITTING CLOTHING. WEAR A HAT TO SHIELD YOURSELF FROM THE SUN. IF POSSIBLE...SPEND TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED FACILITIES. FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS HEAT WAVE...CHECK THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOME PAGE AT WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/FLAGSTAFF...OR TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 4:19 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila, Navajo | 41 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.