Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003
Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 30, 2003, 9:20 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 25 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 30, 2003, 9:20 PM MST (04:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 30, 2003, 9:45 PM MST
- In force
- 25 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1500 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 175 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KFGZ 310421 FFWFGZ AZC025-310545- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 920 PM MST WED JUL 30 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS EXTENDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 1045 PM MST * AT 915 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAD MOVED WEST OF IRON SPRINGS...AND HAS DIMISHED IN THE PRESCOTT AREA. HOWEVER...THE AUTOMATED RAIN GAGE AT IRON SPRINGS INDICATES 1 INCH OF ADDITONAL RAIN BETWEEN 800 PM AND 900 PM MST. MANY LOCATIONS BETWEEN PRESCOTT AND IRON SPRINGS HAVE RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 600 PM MST. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM EARLIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS INCLUDING WILLOW CREEK AND IRON SPRINGS WASH...ROADS...AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. ADDITIONALLY...OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3454 11262 3453 11246 3463 11246 3466 11264 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 30, 9:00 PM MST, 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 9:00 PM MST, 20 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST WED JUL 30 2003
.SYNOPSIS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE...AND FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.
.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH NUMEROUS
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT STORMS TO KEEP GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE. FLOW ALOFT
HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS CHANGE SHOULD FOCUS THE CONVECTION ON THE RIM AND
AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF AREAS WEST OF THE RIM. MANY
AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY PRECIPITATION AGAIN TODAY...SO WITH GROUND
SATURATION QUITE HIGH WE WILL NEED TO FOCUS SOME ATTENTION TOMORROW
ON ISOLATED POTENTIAL FLOODING.
EXPECT DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD DESPITE A SLIGHT MODEL DRYING TREND. NO UPDATES TO
FORECAST PACKAGE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. KD
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON THU FRI SAT TON THU FRI SAT
FLAGSTAFF 057/078 055/080 056/080 040 050 040 050 040 040
WINSLOW 066/088 065/090 065/090 030 030 030 030 020 020
PRESCOTT 064/084 063/086 064/086 050 040 040 040 030 040
PAGE 075/095 074/096 075/096 020 020 020 030 020 020
WINDOW ROCK 062/083 059/085 059/085 030 030 030 030 020 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 072/089 069/091 069/091 030 030 030 030 030 030
COTTONWOOD 072/095 071/097 072/097 040 030 030 030 020 030
GRAND CANYON 056/080 054/082 055/082 040 050 040 050 040 040
GREER 053/074 051/076 052/076 050 050 040 050 040 040
HEBER 058/083 056/085 057/085 040 050 040 050 040 040
JACOB LAKE 057/076 055/078 056/078 040 040 040 050 040 040
NAVAJO N.M. 066/083 063/085 063/085 030 030 030 040 030 030
PAYSON 065/089 064/091 065/091 040 040 030 040 030 030
SEDONA 070/093 069/095 070/095 040 030 030 030 020 030
SELIGMAN 057/087 056/089 057/089 050 040 040 040 030 030
SHOW LOW 065/084 063/086 064/086 050 050 040 050 040 040
ST. JOHNS 061/082 060/084 060/084 040 040 040 040 040 040
WUPATKI N.M. 069/090 068/092 068/092 030 030 030 030 020 020Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 30, 9:35 AM MST, 11 hours 45 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-310200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 935 AM MST WED JUL 30 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE STATE TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY IN PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATER THIS MORNING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND POINTS WEST IN NORTHERN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. STORMS WILL BE MOVING TO THE WEST AT AROUND 20 MPH TODAY...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED UNLESS MULTIPLE STORMS FORM OVER THE SAME LOCATION. MOSTLY SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. DUE TO THE FREQUENCY OF RAIN EVENTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIM...THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING REMAINS MODERATE TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LITTLE CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...INSTEAD OF THE EAST. THIS DIRECTION WILL FAVOR MORE OF THE RIM COUNTRY NORTH TO THE GRAND CANYON...WITH LESS ACTIVITY IN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING STILL REMAINS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 7:10 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 65 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.