Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003
Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 9, 2003, 12:23 PM MST for Apache County, Coconino County, Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 9, 2003, 12:23 PM MST (19:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 9, 2003, 1:30 PM MST
- In force
- 67 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Apache County, AZ, Coconino County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 163 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 433 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 579 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 105 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 286 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 2.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WGUS55 KFGZ 091927
FFWFGZ
AZC001-005-017-092130-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1223 PM MST TUE SEP 9 2003
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TUBA CITY
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
NORTHERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
* UNTIL 230 PM MST
* AT 1219 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN 20 MILES EAST OF TUBA CITY.
AT 1219 PM MST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING OVER DOT KISH
CANYON AND AND MOENKOP WASH WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
ESTIMATED BY RADAR. THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS ORAIBI AND POLACCA
WASHES NORTHEAST OF LEUPP.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
FLAGSTAFF.
LAT...LON 3616 11145 3586 11121 3549 11114 3539 11091
3574 11034 3624 10988 3656 11044 3650 11081
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 9, 10:00 AM MST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 9, 10:00 AM MST, 2 hours 23 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST TUE SEP 9 2003
.SYNOPSIS...FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE OVER
ARIZONA BY THURSDAY...WITH NO MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY
THE RAIN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.
.DISCUSSION...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ARE SURE
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
FLOW...MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON
RIM...YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH WILL BE FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHERE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS
AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS FOR
HEAVY STORMS.
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
MCCOLLUM
.NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1 2003...THE TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TABLE (BELOW) WILL NO LONGER BE
APPENDED TO THIS PRODUCT. THE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING
DAYTIME WEATHER...WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE RECENTLY ADOPTED TABULAR
STATE FORECAST (SFT). THE SFT PROVIDES THESE FORECASTS THROUGH 7
DAYS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT IS FPUS65 KPSR. THE PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER IS PHXSFTAZ. USING THE INTERNET...YOU CAN ACCESS THE SFT
DIRECTLY AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/GPRODUCT.PL?FLGPHXSFTAZ
.FGZ...FFA UNTIL 8 PM MST AZ ZONES 8/10/11/12/16/16/17/18/37/38/39/40.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON WED THU TDY TON WED THU
FLAGSTAFF 065/051 066/043 068/039 070 050 040 020 020 000
WINSLOW 080/062 079/052 079/048 030 030 020 010 000 000
PRESCOTT 075/058 077/052 078/048 060 050 040 020 000 000
PAGE 085/068 082/063 082/059 030 020 020 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK 070/052 070/046 072/042 060 040 040 030 020 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 076/059 076/053 078/049 040 030 030 030 020 000
COTTONWOOD 086/066 088/060 089/056 050 040 030 020 000 000
GRAND CANYON 066/052 067/044 069/040 050 040 030 020 000 000
GREER 062/050 063/042 065/038 070 050 040 030 030 000
HEBER 070/054 071/046 073/042 070 050 040 020 020 000
JACOB LAKE 062/051 063/043 065/039 040 030 030 020 000 000
NAVAJO N.M. 068/058 068/052 070/048 050 040 030 020 000 000
PAYSON 079/058 081/052 082/048 060 050 040 020 000 000
SEDONA 083/065 085/059 086/055 060 050 040 020 000 000
SELIGMAN 078/051 080/045 081/041 040 030 030 020 000 000
SHOW LOW 071/060 072/052 074/048 040 040 030 030 020 000
ST. JOHNS 076/058 075/048 075/044 040 040 030 030 020 000
WUPATKI N.M. 082/064 081/054 081/050 040 030 020 010 000 000Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 9, 10:00 AM MST, 2 hours 23 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-100200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST TUE SEP 9 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA UNTIL 8 PM MST... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOME RAIN WILL BE VERY HEAVY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE AREA OF BLACK MESA...CHINLE VALLEY AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. SOME AREAS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL RECEIVE TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Sep 9, 8:31 AM MST, 3 hours 52 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
0831 AM MST TUE SEP 09 2003
TIME(MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0800 AM BELLEMONT AZ TORNADO
09/09/03 COCONINO TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 180
NORTH OF THE CITY OF
FLAGSTAFF AT 815 AM MST
DFNearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.