Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003
Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 1, 2003, 5:55 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 65 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 1, 2003, 5:55 PM MST (00:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 1, 2003, 7:00 PM MST
- In force
- 65 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Coconino County, AZ
The radar
The Cedar City radar (KICX), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Mercury/Desert R, NV (KDRA), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 275 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 75 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -65 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3528 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 25 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KFGZ 020057 FFWFGZ AZC005-020300- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 555 PM MST MON SEP 1 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 800 PM MST * AT 548 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY OVER THE DRAINAGE OF NATIONAL CANYON IN THE WEST PORTION OF GRAND CANYON NATIONAL PARK. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3618 11318 3600 11293 3611 11274 3632 11289 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 1, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 1, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 25 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST MON SEP 01 2003
.SYNOPSIS.. A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA MOIST AND UNSTABLE THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT...LOOK
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.
.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE WHITES. ISOLATED STORMS
OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE COCONINO PLATEAU. SPOTTERS REPORT LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REMAIN OVER AZ THIS WEEK. SE-S
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO KEEP MOIST FLOW INTO THE STATE. MESO-
ETA SHOWS PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. EXPECT STORMS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE RIM SOUTH AND WEST. DEVELOPMENT AIDED
BY INVERTED TROUGH OVER BAJA WHICH LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO AZ LATE TUE
AND WED. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED PW AND CORRESPONDING UPSWING IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO WEAKEN BY THE
WEEKEND. APPROACHING EPAC S/WV TROF BRINGS A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO
THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF TRUE WILL SEE A DRYING AND COOLING
TREND. DF
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON TUE WED THU TON TUE WED THU
FLAGSTAFF 049/081 050/080 051/079 020 040 030 040 020 040
WINSLOW 060/092 061/092 062/091 020 010 010 010 020 030
PRESCOTT 060/087 061/087 062/086 020 030 020 030 020 030
PAGE 066/093 067/091 068/090 010 010 000 010 020 030
WINDOW ROCK 048/083 048/082 049/081 020 020 020 030 020 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 056/089 056/088 057/087 010 010 010 020 020 030
COTTONWOOD 068/101 068/100 070/099 020 030 020 030 020 030
GRAND CANYON 049/082 050/081 051/080 020 030 020 030 020 030
GREER 046/076 047/075 048/074 020 040 030 040 020 040
HEBER 051/086 052/085 053/084 020 040 030 040 020 040
JACOB LAKE 051/081 052/080 053/079 010 020 020 020 020 030
NAVAJO N.M. 053/082 054/081 055/081 020 010 010 020 020 030
PAYSON 060/092 061/091 062/090 010 030 030 030 020 030
SEDONA 065/096 066/095 067/094 010 040 030 030 020 040
SELIGMAN 056/090 057/089 058/088 010 030 030 020 020 030
SHOW LOW 057/086 057/085 058/084 020 040 030 030 020 040
ST. JOHNS 061/093 061/092 062/090 020 030 020 020 020 040
WUPATKI N.M. 061/094 062/094 063/093 020 020 010 020 020 030Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 1, 9:35 AM MST, 8 hours 20 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-020200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 935 AM MST MON SEP 1 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING THE MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS MAINLY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM ...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. LOOK FOR THE STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Sep 1, 2:02 PM MST, 3 hours 53 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
0202 PM MST MON SEP 01 2003
TIME(MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1145 AM DONEY PARK AZ 0.75 IN HAIL
09/01/03 COCONINO
1230 PM 10 NW FLAGSTAFF AZ 1.00 IN HAIL
09/01/03 COCONINO
DFLocal storm report, Sep 1, 3:18 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
0318 PM MST MON SEP 01 2003
TIME(MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0315 PM SEDONA AZ 0.88 IN HAIL
09/01/03 YAVAPAI
DFThe office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 5:12 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 48 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.