Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 26, 2003Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 26, 2003, 12:53 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 26, 2003, 12:53 PM MST (19:53 UTC)
Expired: Aug 26, 2003, 2:00 PM MST
In force: 67 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Yavapai County, AZ

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 102 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 126 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -91 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1715 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 261955
FFWFGZ
AZC025-262200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1253 PM MST TUE AUG 26 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PRESCOTT

* UNTIL 300 PM MST

* AT 1248 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED VERY 
HEAVY RAIN OVER PRESCOTT AND INTO THE PONDEROSA PARK AREA. SPOTTERS 
REPORT TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH THESE STORMS. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS 
NEARLY STATIONARY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS...AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. 
ADDITIONALLY...OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING. 
SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED INCLUDE GRANITE 
CREEK...MANZANITA CREEK...AND ASPEN CREEK. 

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY 
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK 
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
FLAGSTAFF.

LAT...LON 3439 11250 3444 11230 3470 11241 3461 11269

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 26, 9:35 AM MST, 3 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 26, 9:35 AM MST, 3 hours 18 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST TUE AUG 26 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A SLIGHT
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDING HAS MORE AVAILABLE CAPE THAN MONDAYS
SOUNDING...AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. ANOTHER SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO SOME POTENT STORMS.
ONLY VERY LIGHT EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AGAIN CAUSE SLOW MOVING
STORMS TO PILE UP SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
TO THE WEST INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY AS THEY FALL OFF THE RIM. WILL BE
ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN COCONINO AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES SHORTLY THIS MORNING...THESE AREAS ARE VERY SATURATED AND
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH. MORE OF THE SAME TO FOLLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IGNACIO DRAWS CLOSER. ZONE TRENDS LOOK FINE...BUT WILL UPDATE FOR
THE WATCH. PETERSON.

.FGZ...FFA AZ ZONES 8/12/15/37/38 NOON MST UNTIL 10 PM MST TODAY.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   WED     THU        TDY TON   WED   THU
FLAGSTAFF        078/053 073/050 073/049      050 050 060 050 040 040
WINSLOW          090/062 085/062 083/060      030 030 040 040 030 030
PRESCOTT         083/062 080/060 080/060      050 050 050 040 040 040
PAGE             093/071 090/070 089/067      020 020 030 030 030 030
WINDOW ROCK      081/054 079/052 076/047      030 030 050 040 040 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 087/062 085/060 082/055      020 020 040 040 040 030
COTTONWOOD       094/070 091/068 091/068      050 050 050 040 040 040
GRAND CANYON     081/051 076/051 078/048      040 040 050 040 040 040
GREER            073/050 068/047 068/046      050 050 060 050 040 040
HEBER            083/055 078/052 078/051      050 050 060 050 040 040
JACOB LAKE       076/053 071/050 071/049      040 040 040 040 040 030
NAVAJO N.M.      081/059 079/057 076/052      030 030 050 040 040 040
PAYSON           087/063 084/061 084/061      040 040 060 050 040 040
SEDONA           091/068 088/066 088/066      040 040 050 040 040 040
SELIGMAN         086/061 083/059 083/059      040 040 050 040 040 040
SHOW LOW         083/061 078/058 078/057      050 050 050 050 040 040
ST. JOHNS        090/062 085/062 083/060      040 040 050 040 040 040
WUPATKI N.M.     092/063 087/063 085/061      030 030 040 040 040 030

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 26, 9:45 AM MST, 3 hours 8 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-270200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST TUE AUG 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTY AND ALL OF YAVAPAI
COUNTY FROM NOON MST UNTIL 10 PM MST TODAY...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL ARIZONA BY LATE THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OFF THE RIM AND INTO PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND
GILA COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY.

DUE TO THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND IN PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI
COUNTY. SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN MAY WILL MEAN THAT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN AT LEAST MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 26, 7:35 AM MST, 5 hours 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
0735 AM MST TUE AUG 26 2003

TIME(MST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0215 PM    SEDONA                    AZ   WIND DAMAGE
08/25/03   YAVAPAI                        TREE BLOWN DOWN

0315 PM    CAMP VERDE                AZ   WIND DAMAGE
08/25/03   YAVAPAI                        GARAGE ROOF BLOWN OFF

0248 PM    CHINO VALLEY              AZ   0.50 IN HAIL
08/25/03   YAVAPAI

0330 PM    CAMP VERDE                AZ   FLOOD
08/25/03   YAVAPAI                        SUBSTANTIAL STREET
                                          FLOODING

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 26, 1:37 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	53 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.