Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003
Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 21, 2003, 12:13 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 77 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 21, 2003, 12:13 PM MST (19:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 21, 2003, 1:30 PM MST
- In force
- 77 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Coconino County, AZ
The radar
The Cedar City radar (KICX), 157 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 109 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -106 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1474 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 11 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KFGZ 211917 FFWFGZ AZC005-212115- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1213 PM MST THU AUG 21 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 230 PM MST * AT 1208 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF SUPAI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. MOHAWK CANYON AND NATIONAL CANYON ARE LOCATED WITHIN THE HEAVY RAIN AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3617 11312 3603 11295 3619 11278 3633 11295
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 21, 10:15 AM MST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 21, 10:15 AM MST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1015 AM MST THU AUG 21 2003 .SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTNS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS AZ. THIS CIRC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. A CLOSED LOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE EPAC CENTERED NEAR 33N 128W. TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM A S/W TROUGH WAS EJECTING TO THE NE. THIS FEATURE CAN BE SEEN IN THE WV IMAGERY...AND WAS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL IN THE MODEL DATA. WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING ACROSS CA/AZ THIS MORNING. PW VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS THE STATE. FINALLY... MORNING RAOBS SHOW MODERATE WINDS ALOFT AND CURRENT WAVE CLOUD ACTIVITY OVER NRN AZ INDICATES THESE WINDS STILL PRESENT. THUS...SOME INGREDIENTS NOW IN PLACE FOR STRONGER AND ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF NRN AZ TODAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN WRN ZONES...OTHERWISE ZFP IN GOOD SHAPE. DB .CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA FLAGSTAFF 079/052 079/052 077/051 040 030 050 040 050 020 WINSLOW 092/064 092/064 090/063 030 020 040 030 040 020 PRESCOTT 087/062 087/062 085/061 040 030 040 030 040 020 PAGE 094/070 094/070 092/069 020 020 030 020 030 020 WINDOW ROCK 086/050 086/050 084/049 040 020 040 030 040 020 CANYON DE CHELLY 092/063 092/063 090/062 030 020 040 030 040 020 COTTONWOOD 096/070 096/070 094/069 030 020 040 030 040 020 GRAND CANYON 082/052 082/052 080/051 030 020 040 030 040 020 GREER 074/046 074/046 072/045 050 030 060 050 060 030 HEBER 084/054 084/054 082/053 040 030 050 040 050 020 JACOB LAKE 077/052 077/052 075/051 030 030 040 030 040 020 NAVAJO N.M. 086/055 086/055 084/054 030 020 040 030 040 020 PAYSON 091/064 091/064 089/063 030 030 040 030 040 030 SEDONA 094/063 094/063 092/064 040 020 040 030 040 020 SELIGMAN 090/061 090/061 088/060 030 030 030 030 030 020 SHOW LOW 084/060 084/060 082/059 040 030 050 040 050 020 ST. JOHNS 091/059 091/059 089/058 040 030 040 030 040 020 WUPATKI N.M. 094/065 094/065 092/064 030 020 040 030 040 020
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 21, 10:35 AM MST, 1 hour 38 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-220200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 700 AM MST THU AUG 21 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS PRODUCING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 4:33 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 57 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.