Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 2, 2003Pembina County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2003, 1:15 PM CDT for Pembina County, North Dakota. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2003, 1:15 PM CDT (18:15 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2003, 1:45 PM CDT
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Pembina County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 2, 11:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 6.3 hours before the alert went out and 304 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 774 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -221 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 740 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 98 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 182 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

322 
WUUS53 KFGF 021815
SVRFGF
NDC067-021845-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
114 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN PEMBINA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 145 PM CDT.

* AT 109 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE   
  LEADING EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING        
  WALHALLA TO CAVALIER TO MOUNTAIN...OR FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF       
  GRAFTON TO 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAFTON...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE     
  EAST AT 40 MPH. WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN SOUTHWEST CAVALIER COUNTY
  WITH LARGE TREES DOWN NEAR CRYSTAL. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

  JOLIETTE AT 115 PM AND
  PEMBINA AT 115 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4902 9772 4860 9723 4866 9712 4899 9731

$$

DTR/06

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 9:30 AM CDT, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 9:30 AM CDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE THREAT.

STRONG CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH NORTHERN CLUSTER BECOMING TO TRACK
MORE EAST AS IT CRESTS RIDGE. CONVECTION RIDING ALONG LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY WITH 70 DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG BOUNDARY. AM ALSO SEEING
DEVELOPMENT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL FROM IR IMAGERY. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO UPDATE WILL BE TIMING WITH CONVECTION BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SEEM IN REASON AS TEMPERATURES ALREADY
APPROACHING 80. CONVECTION MAY HOLD SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN HOWEVER
ANY BREAKS WILL ALLOW AREA TO QUICKLY HEAT OUT.

.FGF...NONE.

VOELKER

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 6:35 AM CDT, 6 hours 40 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-021415-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
635 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. DUE TO THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE (LARGE BOW ECHO) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. EXPECT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR ALONG A DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY LINE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN WORK EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOM ON
TO CLOSE OUT THE JULY FOURTH WEEKEND ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BERG

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 12:41 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1241 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1135 AM    8 W LAWTON                ND   71 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03   RAMSEY                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 12:43 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1240 AM    EDINBURG                  ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   WALSH                          LARGE FULL GROWN TREES
                                          BLOWN DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 12:45 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1245 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1240 PM    EDINBURG                  ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   WALSH                          LARGE FULL GROWN TREES
                                          BLOWN DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 12:48 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1248 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1225 PM    8 SW MILTON               ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   CAVALIER                       LARGE TREES BLOWN DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 1:13 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
113 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1230 AM    UNION                     ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   CAVALIER                       35 FOOT PINE TREE DOWN.
                                          BRANCHES EVERYWHERE.
                                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

1235 PM    8 WSW CRYSTAL             ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   PEMBINA                        LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN
                                          ACROSS DRIVEWAY. REPORTED
                                          BY PUBLIC.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 1:15 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
115 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1230 PM    UNION                     ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   CAVALIER                       35 FOOT PINE TREE DOWN.
                                          BRANCHES EVERYWHERE.
                                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

1235 PM    8 WSW CRYSTAL             ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   PEMBINA                        LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN
                                          ACROSS DRIVEWAY. REPORTED
                                          BY PUBLIC.

DPORTER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 10:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Towner	44 min
Jul 2, 10:06 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson	39 min
Jul 2, 10:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey, Towner	44 min
Jul 2, 10:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Eddy	37 min
Jul 2, 11:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Nelson, Ramsey, Walsh	44 min
Jul 2, 11:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy	26 min
Jul 2, 11:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier	46 min
Jul 2, 12:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Walsh	44 min
Jul 2, 12:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Pembina	44 min
Jul 2, 12:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Griggs	40 min
Jul 2, 1:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	45 min
Jul 2, 1:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Steele	33 min
Jul 2, 1:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.