Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 2, 2003Cavalier County, Pembina County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2003, 12:31 PM CDT for Cavalier County, Pembina County, North Dakota. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2003, 12:31 PM CDT (17:31 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2003, 1:15 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Cavalier County, ND, Pembina County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 2, 7:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr
Jul 2, 11:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 309 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2034 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -295 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1447 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 67 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 021731
SVRFGF
NDC019-067-021815-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
  PEMBINA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT.

* AT 1229 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE
  LEADING EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12
  MILES NORTHEAST OF LANGDON TO 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAFTON...     
  MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.  WINDS TO 60 MPH AND POWER     
  OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN LANGDON AT 1220 PM.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

  OLGA AT 1235 PM...
  CRYSTAL AT 1240 PM...
  HENSEL AT 1250 PM AND
  WALHALLA AT 1255 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4898 9847 4855 9787 4856 9718 4903 9753

$$

DTR/06

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 9:30 AM CDT, 3 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 9:30 AM CDT, 3 hours 1 minute before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE THREAT.

STRONG CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH NORTHERN CLUSTER BECOMING TO TRACK
MORE EAST AS IT CRESTS RIDGE. CONVECTION RIDING ALONG LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY WITH 70 DEWPOINTS POOLING ALONG BOUNDARY. AM ALSO SEEING
DEVELOPMENT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL FROM IR IMAGERY. MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS TO UPDATE WILL BE TIMING WITH CONVECTION BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES SEEM IN REASON AS TEMPERATURES ALREADY
APPROACHING 80. CONVECTION MAY HOLD SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN HOWEVER
ANY BREAKS WILL ALLOW AREA TO QUICKLY HEAT OUT.

.FGF...NONE.

VOELKER

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 6:35 AM CDT, 5 hours 56 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-021415-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
635 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. DUE TO THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE (LARGE BOW ECHO) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. EXPECT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR ALONG A DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY LINE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN WORK EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOM ON
TO CLOSE OUT THE JULY FOURTH WEEKEND ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BERG

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 11:49 AM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1149 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1142 AM    CALVIN                    ND   E70 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03   CAVALIER                       ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH
                                          WINDS OCCURING BETWEEN 1140
                                          AND 1145 AM.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 11:54 AM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1154 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1151 AM    2 S HAMAR                 ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/02/03   EDDY                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 12:02 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1202 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1157 AM    4 WNW TOLNA               ND   E60 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03   NELSON                         ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS.
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

1157 AM    9 E WARWICK               ND   E60 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03   BENSON                         ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS.
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

1157 AM    2 E HAMAR                 ND   E60 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03   EDDY                           ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS.
                                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 12:11 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1211 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1205 AM    FAIRDALE                  ND   E80 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03   WALSH                          ESTIMATED 80 MPH. GRAIN
                                          BINS BLOWN OVER.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 12:21 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1221 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1155 AM    4 W TOLNA                 ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/02/03   NELSON

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 12:25 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
1225 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1220 AM    LANGDON                   ND   E60 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03   CAVALIER                       ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS.
                                          POWER OUTAGES REPORTED.

DPORTER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 10:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Towner	44 min
Jul 2, 10:06 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson	39 min
Jul 2, 10:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey, Towner	44 min
Jul 2, 10:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Eddy	37 min
Jul 2, 11:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Nelson, Ramsey, Walsh	44 min
Jul 2, 11:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy	26 min
Jul 2, 11:44 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier	46 min
Jul 2, 12:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Walsh	44 min
Jul 2, 12:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Griggs	40 min
Jul 2, 1:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	45 min
Jul 2, 1:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pembina	30 min
Jul 2, 1:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Steele	33 min
Jul 2, 1:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.