Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Grand Forks, ND

May 3, 2003Benson County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 3, 2003, 7:25 PM CDT for Benson County, North Dakota. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 3, 2003, 7:25 PM CDT (00:25 UTC)
Expired: May 3, 2003, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Benson County, ND

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 666 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1547 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 69 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

973 
WUUS53 KFGF 040025
SVRFGF
NDC005-040115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND-GRAND FORKS
724 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN BENSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

* AT 718 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KNOX...OR ABOUT 18 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF MADDOCK...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  YORK AT 750 PM AND
  LEEDS AT 755 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4809 9985 4805 9932 4835 9934 4836 9982

$$

21

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 3, 2:40 PM CDT, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 3, 2:40 PM CDT, 4 hours 45 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
240 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPS

.OVERVIEW...
NICE SHORTWAVE AND ELEVATED SEVERE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN 1/3
OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 850MB JET AROUND 30KT. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRACK OF LOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN FIRST 36 HOURS. GFS
CONTINUES HIGHER QPF VALUES ACROSS NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH ETA
TARGETING SOUTHERN AREAS. LIKE ETA IDEA OF HITTING SOUTH HARDEST SO
WILL USE.

.TONIGHT...
850MB JET INCREASES TO 50KT INTO NORTHEAST SD AFTER 06Z...WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO AN INCH OR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN SOUTH AS WELL...AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY THUNDER
CHANCES HERE WITH STRENGTH OF MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION IN MID LEVELS
AS LOW DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER NORTH...WILL TAPER
THUNDER CHANCE TO SCATTERED AS SOME SUBSIDENCE ACTUALLY OCCURS
BEHIND FIRST SHORTWAVE. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO MID 40S...EXPECT
LOWS TO BE NEAR THESE VALUES.

.SUNDAY-TUESDAY...
PRECIPITATION MODE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO STRATIFORM TYPE SUNDAY
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH LOW DEEPENING IN IOWA THEN LIFTING INTO MN.
INTENSE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH 65KT AT 850MB WILL TRANSPORT
MOISTURE INTO REGION...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND LIFT. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCE IN
SOUTH...WITH RAIN POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES IN DEFORMATION ZONE.
NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE MORE DRY AIR BEING PULLED INTO AREA FROM
EAST...SO WILL TAPER SHOWER CHANCES HERE. CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE HEADED
EAST AT THIS TIME...SO WILL MENTION LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLEST IN SOUTH...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH
GENERALLY IN LOW/MID 50S TO NEAR 60 NORTH AND LOWS AROUND 40 THROUGH
PERIOD.

EXTENDED...MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER/SHOWERS ON THU IS
MAINLY RELATED TO A MINOR SHORTWAVE EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE...LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS ON THE
HIGH PLAINS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. TIMING OF THAT SHORTWAVE IS VERY
DIFFICULT ATTM AND WILL NECESSARILY BROADBRUSH THUNDER THU/THU
NIGHT. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO STAY WITHIN 60 DM OF
CLIMATOLOGY. WILL NOT STRAY TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 5-10 DEGREES FROM
CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.FGF...NONE

KELLENBENZ/GV

Hazardous weather outlook, May 3, 5:50 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-040130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
550 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL...IS FORECAST
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE
SEVERE WEATHER IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VALLEY CITY TO
FARGO TO PARK RAPIDS MINNESOTA. THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THIS AREA BY 9 PM THIS
EVENING AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WHICH IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/INDEX.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE)

BRAMER

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 3, 1:35 PM CDT, 5 hours 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
135 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0120 PM    4 NE ST MICHAEL           ND   .75 INCH HAIL
05/03/03   BENSON

Local storm report, May 3, 2:29 PM CDT, 4 hours 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
229 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0225 PM    FINLEY                    ND   .88 INCH HAIL
05/03/03   STEELE

Local storm report, May 3, 2:50 PM CDT, 4 hours 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
250 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0125 PM    4 W CRARY                 ND   .75 INCH HAIL
05/03/03   RAMSEY

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.