Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
245 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TSRA/HEAVY RAIN THREAT...FLOOD POTENTIAL
AND TEMPERATURES.

MODELS CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. AT THIS TIME LIKE INITIAL
GFS SURFACE FEATURES WHEN COMPARED WITH HAND ANALYSIS BUT FAVOR
SLOWER ETA SOLUTION WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS OF BOUNDARY BASED ON PAST
EVENTS AND BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO FLOW. WILL LIKELY USE MIX FOR GRIDDS.

IN NEAR TERM MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF SE FA WITH
ISOLD TSRA OVER NE SD ALONG SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER S CENTRAL ND. WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR EARLY AM
MENTION. ALSO WITH RAINFALL AND WEAK FLOW WILL ADD FOG TO ZONE SETS
WHICH RECIEVED RAINFALL.

PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE TSRA THREAT AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM WEST CENTRAL SD THROUGH SE ND INTO
BDE AREA NOT LIKELY TO MOVE MUCH WITH FEATURE PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL
FLOW. PRECIPITABLE H20 THIS AFTERNOON IN MOIST SECTOR 1.5 - 2
INCHES. REGION AGAIN WILL BE UNDER ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET AND
WITH SFC BOUNDARY AND 850MB CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA TODAY. FEEL SE FA WILL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE
OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL HOWEVER WITH RAINS FROM 2-4+ INCHES OVER
PAST TWO DAYS FEEL FLOOD WATCH WARRANTED IN THIS AREA. ONLY CATCH
MAY BE EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH WHICH MAY CUTOFF MOIST
TRANSPORT. WILL ALSO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO THIS AREA ALSO.
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL LESSEN POPS KEEPING FAR NW DRY. TEMPS
WILL HINGE GREATLY ON DEGREE OF LOW CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICK BR
BURNS OFF. BASED ON PAST DAYS WILL GO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE.
DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A CLIMB AS CU FIELD SHOULD THICKEN AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE REACHED.

WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTH AND EAST AS IN PREVIOUS COUPLE
OF DAYS. FEEL ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EARLY WITH MAIN SHOW BEING
TO OUR SOUTH IN DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. COOLEST TEMPERATURES IN
NW WITH DRIEST AIR.

BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLIP SOUTH AND EAST MON NIGHT-TUESDAY SHIFTING
SVR POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN FA. COOLER AIR SEEPS IN BEHIND
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP REMAINDER OF FA FOR THE MOST PART DRY.

MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EAST OF FA AND
RESULTING RAINFREE CONDITIONS TO FINISH OFF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
HANDLED BY CURRENT FCST SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH SE FA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FAR-PKD.

VOELKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
347 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2003

...CORRECTED COUNTY FOR HIGHWAY 10 FLOODING...

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0700 PM    FARGO                     ND   FLASH FLOOD
06/22/03   CASS                           STREET FLOODING IN THE
                                          SOUTHERN PORTION OF FARGO.

0700 PM    MOORHEAD                  MN   FLASH FLOOD
06/22/03   CLAY                           STREET FLOODING IN THE
                                          SOUTHERN PORTION OF
                                          MOORHEAD.

0700 PM    1 E GLYNDON               MN   FLASH FLOOD
06/22/03   CLAY                           MINNESOTA STATE HIGHWAY
                                          PATROL REPORTED WATER OVER
                                          HIGHWAY 10.

BJB/RD