Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 16, 2003, 6:43 PM CDT for Grand Forks County, North Dakota. It was in force for 62 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 16, 2003, 6:43 PM CDT (23:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 16, 2003, 7:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 62 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Grand Forks County, ND
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 262 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 122 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -208 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1249 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -39 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
498 WUUS53 KFGF 162343 SVRFGF NDC035-170045- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 643 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWEST GRAND FORKS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. * UNTIL 745 PM CDT. * AT 637 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF LARIMORE...OR ABOUT 27 MILES WEST OF GRAND FORKS...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTH AT 5 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... KEMPTON AT 700 PM... LOGAN CENTER AT 725 PM AND NORTHWOOD AT 730 PM. REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. LAT...LON 4792 9748 4797 9773 4780 9786 4769 9756 $$ DK/8
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 16, 1:54 PM CDT, 4 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 1:54 PM CDT, 4 hours 49 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 155 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003. ...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONVECTIVE POP THREAT IN SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY TONIGHT... .CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW... 18Z MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM JUST EAST OF HALLOCK MN TO NORTH CENTRAL SD WHILE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS EVIDENT FROM ALBERTA PROVINCE TO NORTH CENTRAL ND. BEST MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE RE-ALIGNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWFA ATTM. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED 250MB JET STREAK OVER MANITOBA PROVINCE WITH SECOND SHOT OF JET ENERGY PUNCHING EAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. .TONIGHT... WILL LINGER CONVECTION THREAT FROM SOUTHEAST ND TO WEST CENTRAL MN AS WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY COUPLES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. FAVORABLE RRQ I.E DIRECT TRANSVERSE CIRCULATION OF MANITOBA JET STREAK SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. DEGREE OF INSOLATION/SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL DICTATE WHETHER ENOUGH DESTABLIZATION WILL OCCUR FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE HAILERS TO FIRE. .TUESDAY-THURSDAY... CURRENT JET MAX OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA SHOULD PUNCH SOUTHEAST INTO MB PROVINCE. DIGGING NATURE OF JET WILL FINALLY BE THE MECHANISM NEEDED TO TO KICK BOUNDARY/CONVECTIVE FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN MN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN WAKE OF FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ASSOCIATED 850-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE AND RESULTANT DEEP LAYERED DRY PROFILE OF COLUMN. SLIGHT 850MB COOLING/THICKNESS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY. DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. .EXTENDED(FRI-MON)... 500MB RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE REGION. GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS ON MOVING A SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES RIDING THE FLOW. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN REMAINDER OF ENSEMBLE RUNS ON SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO AREA THIS WEEKEND...LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OPEN...SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AND BOUNDARY IN PLACE...THUNDER CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR WEEKEND. SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY MONDAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. .FGF...NONE. BERG/DONAVON
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 5:39 AM CDT, 13 hours 4 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-161345- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 539 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2003 ...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH MID MORNING. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP AFTER 3 PM ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DEVILS LAKE TO HALLOCK LINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY...AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE. BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING URL: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF (ALL LOWER CASE) GUST
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.