Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Grand Forks, ND

April 27, 2003Cass County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 27, 2003, 12:52 AM CDT for Cass County, North Dakota. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 27, 2003, 12:52 AM CDT (05:52 UTC)
Expired: Apr 27, 2003, 1:30 AM CDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Cass County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 264 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 146 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -150 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2042 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 113 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

603 
WUUS53 KFGF 270552
SVRFGF
NDC017-270630-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1252 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT.

* AT 1249 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER ERIE...OR ABOUT 31 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  FARGO...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  ARTHUR AT 105 AM...
  HUNTER AT 110 AM AND
  GRANDIN AT 130 AM.

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4719 9754 4702 9745 4709 9690 4723 9689

$$

84

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 26, 8:30 PM CDT, 4 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 26, 8:30 PM CDT, 4 hours 22 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
830 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2003

FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON ELEVATED CONVECTION....WITH THREAT OF HAILERS IN
SE ND.

PARAMTERS IN PLACE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT BTWN 02Z AND
06Z IN ERN ND.  SFC RUC SHOWING INCREASING 85H JET THIS
EVENING...WITH ETA MODEL SHOWING INCREASE 85H JET TO 45-50 KTS FROM
ERN SD INTO WCNTRL MN WITH LEFT QUAD OVER SE ND.  SE ND/WCNTRL MN
ALSO IN AREA OF PRETTY STRONG 85H THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL. WOULD
LIKE TO SEE 85H MOISTURE/TEMP WARM ADVECTION NUMBERS A BIT HIGHER
FOR SEVERE WX...BUT STRENGTH OF ADVECTION PARAMETERS ALONE WOULD
FAVOR ISOLD SVR...BEST CHC OF THIS IN SE ND.  FREEZING LEVELS FROM
PROG SOUNDINGS NR 10KFT BUT TAKING OUT 2200FT ELEVATED LEVEL FROM
SFC TO NR 85H WOULD MAKE FIRST GUESS VIL OF THE DAY 40-45.

01Z SFC MAP SHOWS SFC LOW NR BISMARCK WITH WARM FRONT DENOTING SOUTH
WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER FAR SRN ND NORTH OF ABERDEEN AND
SISSETON THEN SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF SIOUX FALLS.  SEEING GOOD SFC
DEW PT INCREASE UP TO THE UPPER 40S IN NARROW AXIS FROM JUST EAST OF
BISMARCK TO ABERDEEN WITH 50 DEW PTS IN SCNTRL SD.  POSITION OF WARM
FRONT ALSO IN GOOD LOCATION FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR SE ND BASED
ON LOCAL STUDY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER PAST 3 YEARS.

WILL LOOK OVER GRIDDS...BUT THINK DEW PTS MIGHT BE A TAD LOW.
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES.

.FGF...NONE.

RIDDLE

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 26, 9:33 PM CDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-270500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
933 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2003

...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE A SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND PUSH THROUGH EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY SUNRISE.  STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WHERE WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED.  A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT CREATING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.  PLEASE NOTIFY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OF HAIL REPORTS.

DPORTER

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.