Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Grand Forks, ND

September 17, 2003Marshall County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 17, 2003, 5:47 PM CDT for Marshall County, Minnesota. It was in force for 13 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 17, 2003, 5:47 PM CDT (22:47 UTC)
Expired: Sep 17, 2003, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 13 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Marshall County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 202 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 591 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -181 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 970 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 331 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 398 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 172247
SVRFGF
MNC089-172300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
547 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  EASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 542 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF MIDDLE RIVER...OR ABOUT 27
  MILES NORTH OF THIEF RIVER FALLS...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT
  35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  GATZKE AT 550 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4821 9625 4820 9566 4853 9568 4854 9625

$$

55

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 17, 2:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 2:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 27 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
220 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2003

MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE THREAT EARLY ON AND THEN WRAPAROUND SHOWERS
AND TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY PERIODS. WILL STICK
WITH THE ETA FOR THIS PACKAGE...AS THE ETA HAS A SLOWER EASTWARD
PROGRESSION TO THE PCPN.

SFC COLD FRONT NOW ALIGNED FROM KROX TO NEAR KABR. A COUPLE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE SFC FRONT AND THESE MAY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED. WITH THE SFC FRONT IN THE VALLEY...WINDS HAVE REALLY
TAPERED OFF. EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN ND/SOUTHERN
CANADA...WINDS ONLY ABOUT 10-15 MPH. MAIN PUSH OF 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER WESTERN NE/SD. THEREFORE WILL BE ABLE TO
KEEP BREEZY WORDING OUT OF THE ZONES TONIGHT. FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT...WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING IN THE WATCH AREA COUNTIES UNTIL 7
PM...THEN START TO TRANSITION MORE TO SHOWERS. WILL STICK WITH HIGH
PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CATCHES UP TO
THE SFC LOW. SFC COLD FRONT ONLY PROGRESSES INTO THE OUR EASTERN FA
BY MORNING...SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS. AGAIN
WILL BE A DECENT EAST/WEST TEMP GRADIENT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT.

SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE DAY THU AND WILL TAPER HIGHER CHANCES FROM
EAST TO WEST. THICK CLOUD COVER OVER FA AND 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL THRU THE DAY. MOST AREAS WILL SEE WHAT KDVL SAW TODAY...TEMPS
NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE 50S. SAME SONG AND DANCE THU NIGHT...BUT THE
KDVL REGION SHOULD FINALLY GET OUT OF THE SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO FROSTY LEVELS...AS 850 MB
TEMPS PLUNGE TO 0/+2C (DEPENDING ON MODEL). MODELS SHOWING A BIT OF
DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAST CYCLONIC FLOW LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA ON
FRI. WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER ETA SOLUTION FOR NOW AND KEEP A SHOWER
MENTION FOR MOST AREAS ON FRI. WILL FINALLY TAPER OFF THE SHOWERS
FRI NIGHT. TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND A BIT ON FRI AND A BIT MORE ON
SAT.

.EXTENDED...
DEEPENING MEAN 500MB TROUGH OVER PLAINS STATES SHOULD USHER IN
COLDEST AIR OF SEASON INTO REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...PER THICKNESS
AND 850MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS. EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURE REGIME TO
BE BRIEF IN NATURE WITH MODERATING IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE/UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFT EAST. ONLY
PRECIPITATION THREAT THROUGH PERIOD SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERY RAINS DURING TRANSITION
PROCESS.

.FGF...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM LISBON
ND TO ROSEAU MN UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

GODON/BERG

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 17, 6:45 AM CDT, 11 hours 2 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-171330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
645 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2003

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT FROM SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NG

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 17, 1:44 PM CDT, 4 hours 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
144 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0105 PM    1/2 E CORMORANT           MN   .88 INCH HAIL
09/17/03   BECKER                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

BJB

Local storm report, Sep 17, 1:50 PM CDT, 3 hours 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
150 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0140 PM    1 NW CORMORANT            MN   .75 INCH HAIL
09/17/03   BECKER                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

BJB

Local storm report, Sep 17, 1:54 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
154 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0150 AM    CROOKSTON                 MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
09/17/03   POLK                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

BJB

Local storm report, Sep 17, 2:23 PM CDT, 3 hours 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
223 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    5 NE CROOKSTON            MN   .88 INCH HAIL
09/17/03   POLK                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

BJB

Local storm report, Sep 17, 3:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
349 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1205 AM    VALLEY CITY               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
09/17/03   BARNES

0110 AM    4 NW ELDRED               MN   .75 INCH HAIL
09/17/03   POLK

0115 AM    ANGLE INLET               MN   .75 INCH HAIL
09/17/03   LAKE OF THE WOODS

WJB

Local storm report, Sep 17, 5:42 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
542 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0510 PM    1 S WILLIAMS              MN   1.50 INCH HAIL
09/17/03   LAKE OF THE WOODS

DR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 17, 1:01 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	29 min
Sep 17, 1:08 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Polk	37 min
Sep 17, 1:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pennington, Red Lake	38 min
Sep 17, 2:45 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Marshall	30 min
Sep 17, 11:38 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Wilkin	37 min
Sep 17, 12:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail	33 min
Sep 17, 1:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker	39 min
Sep 17, 1:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Polk	37 min
Sep 17, 5:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	34 min
Sep 17, 5:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall	28 min
Sep 17, 6:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Roseau	26 min
Sep 17, 6:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.