Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Grand Forks, ND

August 25, 2003Beltrami County, Roseau County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 25, 2003, 7:16 PM CDT for Beltrami County, Roseau County, Minnesota. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 25, 2003, 7:16 PM CDT (00:16 UTC)
Expired: Aug 25, 2003, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Beltrami County, MN, Roseau County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 174 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 25, 5:00 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1016 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -34 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1579 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 110 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 7.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 260016
SVRFGF
MNC007-135-260100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
715 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA            
  ROSEAU COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

* AT 712 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER HAYES LAKE STATE PARK...OR ABOUT 19 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF ROSEAU...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  GATES CORNER AT 735 PM...
  FOURTOWN AT 740 PM AND
  THORHULT AT 750 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4876 9561 4860 9573 4856 9559 4834 9555
          4813 9525 4847 9526

$$

VOELKER/04

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 25, 3:10 PM CDT, 4 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 25, 3:10 PM CDT, 4 hours 6 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

FCST CHALLENGE...TSTM AND SVR THREAT THIS EVENING...AND WED PM.

NEAR TERM/ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALG AND EAST
OF THE SFC TROF FM SOUTHERN MB INTO EASTERN ND...TO THE SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IN CENTRAL SD. INSTABILITY IS HIGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE RRV. MEANWHILE...STRONG STORM ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF
THE CANAM BORDER WHERE ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED. 18Z MESOETA NOW SHOWS
THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW IN SD...WHICH KEEPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING FOCUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN RRV FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHERN
MB SHOULD SKIRT FAR NORTHERN MINNSOTA ZONES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEASTERN ND AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE WATCH FOR THIS
EVENING.

TUESDAY THRU THURS...FAIRLY FLAT 500MB FLOW WILL BRING
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY COOL CLOSER TO NORMALS OVER
THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...AVN SHOWS DEELP SURFACE LOW
DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN DKTAS AND SETTING UP THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SERIOUD CONVECTION. TEMPS IN EASTERN ND SHOULD SEE RAPID WARMUP
WEDNESDAY AS LOW DEVELOPS WHILE COOLER FLOW WILL HOLD OVER NORTHWEST
MN. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY PM INTO
THURSDAY AND SHOULD WET MUCH OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...500 MB PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY STAGNANT THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS MAIN LOW WOBBLES AROUND HUDSON BAY. SPOKES
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ALONG WITH PRETTY COLD 500 MB
TEMPS. WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FA/SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
FIRST WAVE DROPS DOWN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC FRONT EARLY FRI WITH
ANOTHER EARLY SAT. WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF FORECAST DRY ATTM AS
TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPS
EITHER...WHICH LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

.FGF...NONE.

GUST/GODON

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 25, 1:45 PM CDT, 5 hours 31 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-026>030-
038-039-049-052>054-252100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
145 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM PEMBINA...THROUGH GRAND FORKS AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH JAMESTOWN INTO NORTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A SURFACE TROF
FROM WINNIPEG TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL FOCUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEAT INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND BUILD NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL UP TO ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE INTENSE LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

GUST

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 25, 6:30 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
630 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0600 PM    6.5 SSE CARIBOU           MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/25/03   KITTSON                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0622 PM    GREENBUSH                 MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/25/03   ROSEAU                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

0625 PM    6 NNW BADGER              MN   1.25 INCH HAIL
08/25/03   ROSEAU                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

Local storm report, Aug 25, 6:44 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
644 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0641 PM    BADGER                    MN   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/25/03   ROSEAU                         REPORTED REPORTED BY
                                          TRAINED SPOTTER.

0641 PM    BADGER                    MN   WIND DAMAGE
08/25/03   ROSEAU                         POWER LINES DOWNREPORTED
                                          BY TRAINED SPOTTER.

0641 PM    BADGER                    MN   50 MPH WIND GUST
08/25/03   ROSEAU                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

Local storm report, Aug 25, 7:14 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
714 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0702 PM    WANNASKA                  MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/25/03   ROSEAU                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.
                                          REPORTED

0710 PM    4 N GREENBUSH             MN   .88 INCH HAIL
08/25/03   ROSEAU                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

0713 PM    6 E WANNASKA              MN   WIND DAMAGE
08/25/03   ROSEAU                         12 INCH TREES DOWN...ROOTS
                                          AND ALL.REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.