Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION IN
EASTERN ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH
ASSOCIATED TROUGHS SE OF CWA.  HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA AND RIDGE AXIS IS NOSING INTO CENTRAL ND.  SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBS SHOW CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...GENERALLY VFR IN NATURE.
ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE TO FORM IN EASTERN ZONES...WHERE INSTABILITY
IS GREATEST.  SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 60S WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S.  RUC FORECAST SHOWS HIGHEST CAPES
OF 600-1200 J/KG WITH SHOWALTER VALUES OF -2 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z IN NORTHERN MN.  ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS
FREEZING LEVELS ARE NEAR 13K FT.

.OVERNIGHT...
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ZONES WILL DIMINISH/SHIFT EAST OF
THE CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO CWA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SURFACE RIDGE AT 12Z LOCATED FROM BDE
TO FAR.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WITH
THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE...WILL ADD
PATCHY FOG FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.  UPS FOG
PLOT ON AWIPS INDICATES DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 06Z IN THE
AREA...HOWEVER...WILL LET EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFTS MONITOR TRENDS.
ANTICIPATE LOWEST VISIBILITIES TO OCCUR IN NORTHWEST MN WHERE LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED.  ETA CONVECTIVE TEMPS FOR GFK/FAR IN
THE MID 80S AROUND 18Z...INCREASING TO THE UPPER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  SOME CU MAY DEVELOP EARLY...BUT FEEL THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUPPRESSION TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER EASTERN ND.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY HOLD IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...SO SCAT 3500FT CU IS EXPECTED.  ADDED
PATCHY FOG TO EASTERN ZONES FOR TUES MORNING AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OFF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING.

TUES/WED LOOK MUCH WARMER AS S/SW SURFACE FLOW INCREASES TO 10-20
MPH AND THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS AXIS POKES INTO EASTERN MT AND
WESTERN DAKOTAS.  EXPECT HIGHEST READINGS TO BE WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S ARE POSSIBLE.   STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE IN
GRIDS WHICH HAPPENS TO BE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH MOST NUMERICAL
MODELS.  SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE SUNNY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS EXCEED
100F.

.EXTENDED...
NO GREAT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXTENDED.  POSTPONED THUNDER CHANCES
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO MODEL SLOWDOWN OF SFC TROF/FRONT.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.  MODERATED DOWN
SLIGHTLY THE TEMPS/DEW POINTS FOR DAY 7 AS TROF PASSES CWA.

.FGF...NONE.

DPORTER/DR/LUKES

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-101430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
632 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY HOWEVER NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

VOELKER