Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2003

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTY. UPPER LOW WILL PARK OVER NORTHEAST MN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VORICITY LOBES ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL CREATE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY. COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WATER VAPOR HAS VORTICITY LOBES OVER NORTHEAST
ND, EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN ONTARIO THAT ARE ROTATING
AROUND SYSTEM. 88D SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWFA WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN AN EAST-WEST BAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING REACHED
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR DVL GROUP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT FOR FRIDAY IN DVL AS
UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT PRECIPITATION
EAST SATURDAY.

.EXTENDED...

EXTENDED MODELS OVERALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD.
CONSENSUS IS FOR SLOWER SOLUTION WITH UPPER LOW TRACKING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION KEEPING FA IN NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL INTO
NEXT WEEK. FA SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH WEST OF ANY IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW TO KEEP PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART DRY.
THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST WITH ONLY GRADUAL WARMING MID WEEK
OTHERWISE TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.FGF...NONE.

HOPPES/VOELKER

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-301430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
650 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PORTION
OF NORTHWEST AND WESTCENTRAL MINNESOTA JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BEGINNING IN EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTH PORTION OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ONE CAN EXPECT MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW DOWNBURSTS CAUSING HIGH WIND IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM
MANITOBA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...MAINLY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEY
MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE MINNESOTA PORTION ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN AND WESTWARD FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GV