Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
245 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN ORIENTATION/TRACK AND TIMING OF
NEXT UPPER LOW TO SWING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. FAVOR ORENTATION OF
ETA AND TIMING OF GFS SO WILL TRY TO USE MIX FOR GRIDS.

FOR TONIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FIRE OVER FA IN RELATIVELY
RANDOM FASHION. AIRMASS MODESTLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER ANYTHING ORGANIZED
UNLIKELY AS FLOW THROUGH COLUMN REMAINS WEAK AND PRECIPITABLE H20
BLO ONE INCH. AS A RESULT CURRENT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH
LOSS OF MAX HEATING. WILL MAINTAIN SCT MENTION MAINLY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY INTO EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY TO MOVE LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AND AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY BR
CONSIDERING CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND WEAK FLOW.

LOOKS LIKELY RELATIVELY SAME STORY TOMORROW AS UPPER LOW TRACKS
ACROSS SD AND BEGINS TO LIFT INTO MN. MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME
RESOLVING RH/CLOUD TRENDS. BASED ON TRENDS PAST FEW DAYS WILL
GENERALLY GO PC. THERMAL AND STABILITY PARAMETERS SIMILAR AND WITH
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/SFC LOW OVER FA WILL CONTINUE WITH MODEST POPS.
NEXT UPPER LOW NOW OVER SASK FROM WATER VAPOR ENTERS PICTURE. THIS
FEATURE TO CARVE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AGAIN DIFFERNCES ARISE ON
HOW THIS NEXT LOW INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON EVOLVING SCENARIO SO WILL CONTINUE
MID RANGE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM NW-SE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ABOVE FEATURES
PULL EAST AND SURFACE HIGH RIDGES IN. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST
INTO SUNDAY. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DIFFICULTY WITH CLOUD TRENDS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

.EXTENDED(MON-THU)...
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL TREND THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY. TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.

.FGF...NONE.

VOELKER/DONAVON

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
652 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HOPPES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
355 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0325 PM    ERHARD                    MN   WIND DAMAGE
06/05/03   OTTER TAIL                     TREE BRANCHES DOWN

LK