Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 5, 2003Roseau County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 5, 2003, 6:38 PM CDT for Roseau County, Minnesota. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 5, 2003, 6:38 PM CDT (23:38 UTC)
Expired: Jun 5, 2003, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Roseau County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 186 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1815 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 29 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

765 
WUUS53 KFGF 052338
SVRFGF
MNC135-060015-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
637 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN ROSEAU COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT.

* AT 634 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINECREEK...OR ABOUT 16
  MILES WEST OF ROSEAU...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  ROSS AT 715 PM.

IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4900 9580 4883 9583 4888 9622 4900 9622

$$

84/54

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 5, 2:45 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 5, 2:45 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
245 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN ORIENTATION/TRACK AND TIMING OF
NEXT UPPER LOW TO SWING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. FAVOR ORENTATION OF
ETA AND TIMING OF GFS SO WILL TRY TO USE MIX FOR GRIDS.

FOR TONIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FIRE OVER FA IN RELATIVELY
RANDOM FASHION. AIRMASS MODESTLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER ANYTHING ORGANIZED
UNLIKELY AS FLOW THROUGH COLUMN REMAINS WEAK AND PRECIPITABLE H20
BLO ONE INCH. AS A RESULT CURRENT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH
LOSS OF MAX HEATING. WILL MAINTAIN SCT MENTION MAINLY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY INTO EVENING HOURS. BOUNDARY TO MOVE LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AND AS CU FIELD DISSIPATES MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY BR
CONSIDERING CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND WEAK FLOW.

LOOKS LIKELY RELATIVELY SAME STORY TOMORROW AS UPPER LOW TRACKS
ACROSS SD AND BEGINS TO LIFT INTO MN. MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME
RESOLVING RH/CLOUD TRENDS. BASED ON TRENDS PAST FEW DAYS WILL
GENERALLY GO PC. THERMAL AND STABILITY PARAMETERS SIMILAR AND WITH
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/SFC LOW OVER FA WILL CONTINUE WITH MODEST POPS.
NEXT UPPER LOW NOW OVER SASK FROM WATER VAPOR ENTERS PICTURE. THIS
FEATURE TO CARVE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AGAIN DIFFERNCES ARISE ON
HOW THIS NEXT LOW INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON EVOLVING SCENARIO SO WILL CONTINUE
MID RANGE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM NW-SE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ABOVE FEATURES
PULL EAST AND SURFACE HIGH RIDGES IN. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST
INTO SUNDAY. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DIFFICULTY WITH CLOUD TRENDS
WILL LEAN TOWARDS WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

.EXTENDED(MON-THU)...
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL TREND THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE ZONAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMING ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY. TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AROUND THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.

.FGF...NONE.

VOELKER/DONAVON

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 5, 6:52 AM CDT, 11 hours 46 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-051400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
652 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HOPPES

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 5, 3:55 PM CDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
355 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0325 PM    ERHARD                    MN   WIND DAMAGE
06/05/03   OTTER TAIL                     TREE BRANCHES DOWN

LK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 5, 2:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.